2024-2025年亚太地区商品和服务贸易展望（英）_22页_1mb

ASIA-PACIFIC TRADE AND INVESTMENT TRENDS 2024/2025 Summary

Core Content

The Asia-Pacific region experienced significant trade and investment growth in 2024 and is projected to continue this momentum in 2025. The report outlines key trends in both merchandise and commercial services trade, highlighting regional and subregional dynamics, as well as the impact of global economic conditions and geopolitical factors.

Main Points

Merchandise Trade

• Trade Growth in 2024:

  • Merchandise trade in the region expanded, with real exports and imports growing by 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively.
  • Nominal trade growth was 2.2% for exports and 4.1% for imports, outperforming global averages of 1.8% and 2.9%.
  • The Asia-Pacific region's trade surplus decreased to 2.3% of total merchandise trade from 3.2% in 2023, due to faster import growth than export growth.

• Regional Share of Global Trade:

  • The region's share of global nominal exports and imports increased slightly to 38.9% and 36.7%, respectively.

• Subregional Performance:

  • South-East Asia (SEA): Real export growth of 5.8%, led by Viet Nam and Malaysia.
  • South and South-West Asia (SSWA): Real export growth of 3.6%, with India and Bangladesh as key contributors.
  • East and North-East Asia (ENEA): Real export growth of 3.2%, with Hong Kong and South Korea outperforming.
  • North and Central Asia (NCA): Real export growth of 0.9%, primarily due to Russia's mild growth.
  • Pacific: Exports declined by 2.1%, while imports were the only subregion to contract.

• Intra-Regional Trade:

  • Intra-regional trade accounted for 53.4% of total merchandise exports and 55.6% of total merchandise imports in 2024.
  • China represented a crucial market, with 23.0% of total trade (excluding China) in the region.
  • The European Union and the United States remained significant trade partners, with the EU accounting for 10.2% of total imports and the US for 7.2%.

• Trade Reconfiguration:

  • NCA shifted exports from the EU to SSWA and ENEA, primarily due to sanctions and supply chain adjustments.
  • ENEA economies increased trade ties with non-subregional partners while reducing exports to the US.

• 2025 Prospects:

  • Merchandise trade is expected to continue growing in 2025, with real exports increasing between 2.7% and 3.5%.
  • Developed economies are projected to grow faster than developing ones, with China's export growth slowing.
  • SEA and ENEA are anticipated to see stronger export growth (3%–6%), while the Pacific and NCA may experience more modest growth.
  • Import growth is expected to align with exports, with SSWA potentially outpacing exports due to strong domestic demand.

• Challenges and Risks:

  • Uncertainties include slower-than-expected recovery in major economies and potential trade wars.
  • Protectionist policies and US-imposed tariffs could significantly impact trade growth.
  • Developing economies may be more vulnerable, with exports growth projected to be one-third of that in 2024.

Commercial Services Trade

• Trade Growth in 2024:

  • Commercial services trade recovered, with exports and imports growing by 8.6% and 6.2%, respectively.
  • Travel and tourism services were the main drivers, contributing 20.5% of exports and 24.7% of imports.

• Sectoral Growth:

  • Travel services saw a substantial rebound, growing by 27.5% and 26.2%.
  • Transport services were the largest sector, contributing 21.3% of exports and 27.4% of imports.
  • Other growing sectors include construction (17.1%), goods-related services (9.4%), and intellectual property-related charges (7.4%).

• Subregional Performance:

  • Pacific: Highest export growth at 13%.
  • NCA: Lowest export growth at 5.3%.
  • ENEA: Led in import growth, followed by SSWA, SEA, and the Pacific.
  • SSWA: Slight decline in imports (-3.1%).

• Intra-Regional Trade:

  • Intra-regional services trade accounted for approximately 20% of the region's total services trade.
  • ENEA markets were the primary source of services trade, contributing 11% of total trade.

• 2025 Prospects:

  • Commercial services exports and imports are projected to grow by 8% and 10.9%, respectively.
  • Developed economies are expected to outperform, especially in travel and digitally delivered services.
  • ENEA and the Pacific may see modest export growth, while SSWA and SEA are expected to experience higher import growth.
  • Risks include indirect downward pressures from disrupted merchandise trade and heightened trade tensions affecting policy certainty.

Key Information

• Intra-regional trade remains a cornerstone of the Asia-Pacific trade landscape, with SEA and ENEA leading in trade volumes.
• China continues to be a major trading partner, both as an exporter and importer.
• Geopolitical factors such as sanctions and supply chain adjustments have led to significant shifts in trade patterns.
• Global economic conditions and protectionist policies, especially from the United States, pose a major risk to trade growth.
• Developing economies are more vulnerable to these risks and are expected to experience slower growth compared to developed economies.
• Digitally delivered services are playing an increasing role in commercial services trade, expanding the region's trade destinations beyond traditional neighbors.

References

• Data sources include the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
• The report was prepared by Nikita Shahu, Witada Anukoonwattaka, and Ruoying Chen, under the guidance of Yann Duval and Rupa Chanda.