20180713-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_9页_304kb

EM STRATEGY DAILY - 13 July 2018 Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of key economic developments and market outlooks in Emerging Markets (EM) for the week of 13 July 2018, focusing on India, Brazil, and the CEEMEA region, as well as Latin America. It also includes details about EM Strategy contacts and legal disclosures.

Key Economic Highlights

India

• CPI Inflation: Accelerated to a five-month high of 5.0% y/y in June, in line with BNP Paribas' forecast but below the consensus expectation of 5.3%.
• Core Inflation: Rose to a series high of 6.1% y/y, indicating underlying inflationary pressures.
• Industrial Production (IP): Grew by 3.2% y/y, slower than expected. Private sector construction activity was weak.
• Monetary Policy Outlook: The RBI is expected to raise rates by 25bps to 6.50% on 1 August.

Brazil

• Inflation Forecast: Updated to 4.0% in 2018, with no change to the 3.5% forecast for 2019.
• Factors Influencing Inflation: Recent shocks such as the truck drivers' strike and higher electricity prices are expected to have a partial impact on inflation.
• Currency and Output Gap: Continued currency appreciation and a wide output gap are expected to help keep inflation contained in 2019.

CEEMEA

• Czech Republic (CNB): Minutes of the 27 June meeting will be published today. The CNB is expected to show a more hawkish stance, potentially leading to a 25bps rate hike in Q4 2018.
• CPI Inflation: Rose to 2.6% y/y, slightly above Bloomberg expectations of 2.5%.
• Market Activity: With a previous rate hike already priced in, market activity is expected to be limited.

Latin America Outlook

• Mexico: Four key events are anticipated before AMLO's inauguration:
  • 2019 Budget
  • NAFTA Negotiations
  • Appointment of Key Officials
  • Congress Installation
• These events may shape the direction of the AMLO government in terms of economic policy and market impact.

EM Strategy Contacts

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• Non-Independent Research: This document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• Marketing Communication: It is intended for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by MiFID II.
• Confidentiality: The document is provided strictly confidential and may not be distributed without prior written consent.
• No Investment Advice: No investment, financial, legal, or tax advice is provided in this document.
• No Guarantee of Accuracy: Information is based on public sources and may not be independently verified.
• No Liability: BNPP disclaims any liability for errors, omissions, or reliance on the document.
• Indicative Prices: Any prices or terms mentioned are indicative and not binding.
• Legal Restrictions: Certain securities may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain investors.

Additional Notes

• Online Resources:
  • BNP Paribas Global Markets Website: www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com
  • BNP Paribas Strategy Website: BNP Paribas Strategy Website
• Bloomberg Tags:
  • Fixed Income Research: BPFR
  • G10 Interest Rate Research: BPBS
  • Emerging Markets Research: BPFR
  • Market Economics: BPEC

Disclaimer

This document is not a prospectus, advertisement, or public offering. It is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment research or advice. Transactions may involve high risk and volatility. Readers are advised to consult independent advisors before making any investment decisions.