那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-当流动性充裕和风险厌恶上升时会发生什么？-20180425-6页_671kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document discusses the impact of high global liquidity and rising risk aversion on financial markets, highlighting the stagnation of the risk channel of monetary policy. It is a concise analysis by economists at Natixis, aimed at professional and qualified investors.

Main Points

1. Current Financial Market Environment

• Global liquidity is growing rapidly: Central banks are creating money, which is used to finance purchases of financial assets globally.
• Risk aversion has increased: This is driven by several factors, including uncertainty over U.S. economic policies, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the prospects of new technology companies.

2. Effects of High Liquidity and Rising Risk Aversion

• Liquidity shifts from risky to risk-free assets: Investors are moving their capital away from high-risk investments towards safer ones.
• Risk premia rise: The cost of capital for risky assets increases.
• Prices of risky assets fall: Due to the increased demand for safer investments.
• Yields on risk-free bonds fall: As investors seek safety, the demand for risk-free assets increases, pushing down yields.

3. The "Risk Channel" of Monetary Policy

• The risk channel is one of the mechanisms through which expansionary monetary policy influences the economy.
• Normally, monetary expansion leads investors to shift to risky assets, lowering risk premia and the cost of capital.
• However, in the current environment, this channel has stopped functioning despite the expansionary stance of global monetary policy.

Key Information

• Global liquidity is supported by:
  • The return of capital flows to emerging markets.
  • Controls on capital outflows in China.
  • Rising oil prices improving current-account balances of OPEC and Russia.
• Risk aversion is influenced by:
  • Concerns over U.S. economic policies (fiscal stimulus at full employment, protectionism).
  • Geopolitical tensions (U.S.-China, U.S.-Russia, U.S.-Iran, Europe-Russia).
  • Doubts about the future of new technology companies.

Evidence and Data

• Chart 1 shows the rapid growth in the global monetary base.
• Chart 2 reflects the increase in global foreign exchange reserves.
• Charts 3A and 3B illustrate the rise in risk perception.
• Charts 7A and 7B, and Chart 8 show the increase in risk premia (credit spreads).
• Chart 9 depicts the decline in stock market indices.
• Chart 10 shows the fall in yields on 10-year government bonds since February 2018.

Conclusion

• The risk channel of expansionary monetary policy is not working as expected.
• Despite a significant increase in global liquidity, risk premia have risen, and risky asset prices have declined due to heightened risk aversion.
• This combination of factors suggests a shift in investor behavior and a reduced effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools in stimulating economic growth through risk-taking.

Disclaimer

• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and cannot be shared without prior written consent.
• No personalized investment recommendations are made; the content is for general information.
• No liability is accepted for any use of the document or its contents.
• The views expressed are those of the authors and may differ from those of Natixis or its affiliates.
• Regulatory compliance is emphasized, with different jurisdictions having specific restrictions.
• The document does not constitute financial analysis and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements to promote the independence of investment research.