2018全球医学趋势报告（英文版）_10页_1mb

2018 Global Medical Trends Survey Report Summary

Core Content and Key Findings

The 2018 Global Medical Trends Survey Report provides an analysis of medical cost trends across different regions, including Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and The Americas, for the years 2016 to 2018. It highlights the factors influencing these trends, such as government policies, technological advancements, and demographic changes.

Main Regions and Trends

Asia Pacific

• Overall Trend: The Asia Pacific region has experienced significant increases in medical costs, driven by China, India, Malaysia, and Singapore.
• China:
  • Gross cost trend remained above 10% in 2016–2018 due to increased demand for private care and the growth of the wealthy middle class.
  • New medical technologies and rising labor costs also contributed to the trend.
• India:
  • Medical cost trend is influenced by poor underwriting and pricing discipline, low health awareness, and the use of unnecessary procedures.
  • Lifestyle disorders are increasing, leading to chronic ailments.
• Malaysia:
  • Experienced the largest growth in medical costs in the region.
  • Increased use of expensive technologies and medical tourism from foreign visitors.
• Singapore:
  • Medical cost trend slowed in recent years but is expected to rise again due to specialist shortages, chronic diseases, and new technologies.
• Other Countries:
  • Hong Kong, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand also showed consistent growth in both gross and net cost trends.

Europe

• Overall Trend: The upward cost trend is less severe than in other regions, primarily due to the relatively stable cost movements in major economies.
• France:
  • Government measures have helped reduce medical trend rates from 4% to 2%.
  • Initiatives include cost control in hospitals, prescription drugs, and healthcare professional compensation.
• Italy:
  • Flattest trend in Europe due to government control over the social security system.
  • However, waiting times for public services have increased private care demand.
• United Kingdom:
  • Projected increase in 2018 due to an aging population, delayed care access, and new medical treatments.
• Other Countries:
  • Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine all show varying degrees of cost increases, with some experiencing double-digit trends.

Middle East and Africa

• Overall Trend:
  • The largest private medical markets in the region are UAE and South Africa.
  • UAE:
    • Double-digit increases in medical costs, but signs of slowing in 2018 due to mandatory insurance and cost monitoring initiatives.
    • Supply-side cost management and competition from international brands are influencing inflation.
  • South Africa:
    • Medical cost trend slightly reduced due to medical scheme increases linked to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
    • Core inflation in 2017 was 4.6%, the lowest in five years.
• Other Countries:
  • Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates all show varied cost trends, with some countries experiencing significant increases or declines.

The Americas

• Overall Trend:
  • Driven by Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela.
• Argentina:
  • Healthcare coverage premium rates are regulated by the government, which periodically allows rate increases.
  • Measures to reduce general inflation are reflected in the 2017 and 2018 trends.
• Brazil:
  • Double-digit increases due to reduced market competition, mandatory coverage expansions, and increased beneficiary appeals for uncovered treatments.
  • High costs for new medical technologies and weakened exchange rates for imported equipment.
• Mexico:
  • Medical cost inflation is expected to be lower in 2018 due to improved general inflation.
  • Lifestyle diseases are increasing, suggesting a need for more prevention measures.
• Venezuela:
  • Uncontrolled hyperinflation remains the greatest concern, leading to extreme difficulties for local currency-denominated medical plans.
  • Rapid currency devaluation has caused a depletion of benefit levels, resulting in declining corporate plan participation.

Key Information

• Global Outlook: More than half of health insurers globally expect the upward cost trend to be higher or significantly higher over the next three years.
• Cost Trends:
  • Gross cost trends generally show higher increases than net cost trends, which are adjusted for general inflation.
  • Some countries, like Denmark, Netherlands, and Sweden, have seen net cost trends decline or remain stable.
• Factors Influencing Trends:
  • Government policies and cost controls.
  • Technological advancements and the adoption of new medical treatments.
  • Demographic changes, such as an aging population.
  • Economic factors, including inflation and currency devaluation.
  • Patient behavior, such as delayed treatment and increased use of private care.
• Notable Cases:
  • Venezuela has the most extreme medical cost trend due to hyperinflation.
  • Argentina and Brazil have significant regulatory impacts on medical cost trends.
  • Malaysia and India have shown some of the highest gross cost increases.

Summary of Key Countries

Conclusion

The report underscores that medical cost trends are highly variable across regions and countries, influenced by a mix of regulatory, economic, and demographic factors. While some regions like Europe have relatively stable trends, others such as the Asia Pacific and The Americas show significant increases, with Venezuela being the most extreme example. The trend in many countries is expected to continue rising, necessitating proactive strategies in cost management and healthcare policy reform.