WTW-2018年全球医学趋势报告（英文）-2017-12页-1mb

2018 Global Medical Trends Survey Report Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Willis Towers Watson Global Medical Trends Pulse Survey highlights the global rise in medical care costs, which continue to outpace general economic inflation. The survey, conducted in September and October 2017, includes responses from 201 leading medical insurers across 60 countries. The U.S. market is excluded, and the Americas data includes only Canadian and Latin American insurers.

Key Findings

• Global Medical Inflation: The expected average global medical inflation rate for 2018 is 7.2%, up from 6.8% in 2017. This rate significantly exceeds the average general inflation rate of 2.5% in respondent countries.
• Latin America: This region is experiencing the highest medical cost increases, with an average of 11.4% in 2018, driven by Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico.
• Continued Upward Trend: More than half of global health insurers expect the upward trend in medical costs to be greater or significantly greater over the next three years.

Medical Trends by Region

Asia Pacific

• China: Expected to maintain a gross medical inflation rate of 10.6% in 2018, driven by increased demand for private care, new medical technologies, and rising labor costs.
• India: Medical cost trends are influenced by poor underwriting, delayed treatment, and unnecessary procedures by private practitioners, alongside lifestyle disorders.
• Malaysia: Has the highest growth in medical costs in the region, attributed to the adoption of expensive new technologies and medical tourism.
• Singapore: The slower trend seems to be ending as more patients turn to private hospitals due to overcrowding in public hospitals.
• Thailand: Medical cost trends are relatively stable, but rising costs for new technologies and chronic diseases contribute to inflation.
• Australia, New Zealand, Philippines, Hong Kong, Taiwan: All show increasing trends, with some countries experiencing fluctuations in net cost trends.

Europe

• Overall Trend: The upward trend in medical costs is less severe compared to other regions, mainly due to efficiency measures in larger economies.
• France: Government efforts to control costs, such as reducing hospital expenses and promoting generics, have brought the trend rate down to around 2%.
• Italy: Flattening trend due to government control over the social security system, but increased demand for private care is observed.
• United Kingdom: Medical cost trends have been relatively stable but are expected to rise in 2018 due to an aging population, access challenges, and the use of high-cost treatments.
• Other Countries: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, and Turkey show varying degrees of medical inflation, with some experiencing double-digit increases.

Middle East and Africa

• United Arab Emirates: Medical cost trends are still in double digits, but there are signs of slowing in 2018 due to mandatory insurance and cost management initiatives.
• South Africa: Medical cost inflation is slightly reduced, linked to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with core inflation at 4.6% in mid-2017.
• Other Countries: Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and others show rising medical costs, influenced by the introduction of new technologies and treatment options.

The Americas

• Argentina: Medical inflation is regulated by the government, but high general inflation remains a concern.
• Brazil: Double-digit increases are due to reduced market competition, expanded mandatory coverage, and the impact of the weakened currency.
• Mexico: Expected to see a decrease in medical cost inflation in 2018 due to improved general inflation, though lifestyle diseases continue to be a factor.
• Venezuela: Uncontrolled hyperinflation is the primary concern, causing severe depletion of benefit levels in local currency-denominated plans.

Key Factors Influencing Medical Trends

• Technological Advancements: The adoption of new medical technologies increases costs, especially in countries with high demand for such treatments.
• Private Care Demand: In many regions, the increase in private care usage contributes to higher medical costs.
• Government Policies: Regulatory measures and cost control initiatives in some countries help mitigate medical inflation.
• Economic Inflation: General inflation rates have a direct impact on medical cost trends, especially in countries with high inflation.
• Health Awareness and Prevention: There is a growing emphasis on wellness initiatives and prevention measures to combat rising costs from lifestyle diseases.

Conclusion

The survey underscores a global trend of rising medical costs, with the most significant increases observed in Latin America and parts of Asia. While some regions show signs of slowing trends, the majority of countries are expected to see continued upward pressure on medical expenses over the next three years. These trends are influenced by a combination of factors, including technological adoption, increased private care usage, and economic conditions.