2018年-世界发展银行全球_Global_Economic_Prospects_June_2018_184页_16mb

2018 Global Economic Prospects Summary

Core Content

The June 2018 Global Economic Prospects report, titled The Turning of the Tide?, provides an overview of the global economic outlook and highlights the challenges and opportunities facing both advanced and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). It emphasizes that while global growth has eased, it remains robust, and outlines the risks that could affect future performance.

Main Points

Global Outlook

• Global Growth: Projected to reach 3.1% in 2018, but is expected to decline to 2.9% by 2020 as global slack dissipates, trade and investment moderate, and financing conditions tighten.
• Advanced Economies: Growth is expected to slow toward potential rates due to the normalization of monetary policy and the waning effects of U.S. fiscal stimulus.
• EMDEs: Growth in commodity importers remains strong, while commodity exporters are expected to see a mature rebound over the next two years.
• Long-term Growth: The long-term (10-year-ahead) consensus forecast for global growth appears to have stabilized for the first time since 2010. However, past experience suggests these forecasts may still be overly optimistic.
• Risks to Growth: Outlook is tilted to the downside, including:
  • Disorderly tightening of financing conditions
  • Escalating trade protectionism
  • Heightened geopolitical tensions
  • Policy uncertainty
• Policy Recommendations:
  • EMDE policymakers should rebuild monetary and fiscal policy buffers
  • Prepare for rising global interest rates and financial market turbulence
  • Focus on structural reforms to boost potential growth through competitiveness, adaptability to technological change, and trade openness

Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs)

• Commodity Importers: Economic activity remains robust, with growth in countries like China, India, and Mexico showing resilience.
• Commodity Exporters: Expected to see a mature rebound, but long-term growth may be dampened by the slowdown in demand from major EM7 economies.
• Inflation: Global inflation is gradually rising from low levels, but remains below central bank targets in many advanced economies.
• Structural Challenges: Ongoing structural issues such as demographic trends and low investment growth continue to limit potential growth.

Special Focus

1. The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand

• The EM7 (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russian Federation, and Turkey) have been key drivers of global commodity demand.
• Over the past 20 years, the EM7 accounted for almost all of the increase in global metal consumption and two-thirds of the increase in energy consumption.
• As these economies mature, demand for commodities is expected to level off, leading to a potential slowdown in global commodity prices.
• Policy Implications: EMDEs that rely heavily on commodity exports should focus on economic diversification and policy frameworks to mitigate the impact of reduced demand.

2. Corporate Debt: Financial Stability and Investment Implications

• Corporate Debt: Average corporate debt in EMDEs has increased over the past decade, raising concerns about financial stability and investment prospects.
• Debt Service Costs: Expected to rise as advanced economies normalize monetary policy.
• Debt and Investment: High levels of corporate debt may be associated with weak investment growth, especially in large firms.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Implement countercyclical and macroprudential policies to address financial stability concerns.
  • Strengthen bankruptcy regimes and other structural policies to manage the investment implications of high corporate debt.

Regional Outlooks

East Asia and Pacific (EAP)

• Recent Developments: Economic activity has continued to grow.
• Outlook: Growth is expected to mature over the next two years.
• Risks: Potential financial market stress and trade protectionism.

Europe and Central Asia (ECA)

• Recent Developments: Economic activity has shown signs of recovery.
• Outlook: Growth is expected to stabilize.
• Risks: Policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

• Recent Developments: Economic activity has improved.
• Outlook: Growth is expected to continue.
• Risks: Downside risks remain, including trade protectionism and financial instability.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

• Recent Developments: Economic activity has remained stable.
• Outlook: Growth is expected to moderate.
• Risks: Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty.

South Asia (SAR)

• Recent Developments: Economic activity has remained subdued.
• Outlook: Growth is expected to increase.
• Risks: Policy uncertainty and financial instability.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

• Recent Developments: Economic activity has remained weak.
• Outlook: Growth is expected to increase.
• Risks: Policy uncertainty and financial instability.

Key Information

• The report highlights the importance of policy reforms and institutional improvements to enhance long-term growth.
• It emphasizes the interconnectedness of global markets and the potential for financial crises if risks are not managed.
• EMDEs are urged to address structural issues and build resilience against global shocks.
• The cutoff date for data used in the report is May 25, 2018.
• The report is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the global economy is showing signs of recovery, the medium-term outlook is uncertain and risky. EMDEs need to reform policies and build institutional capacity to support sustainable growth. The emergence of new risks suggests that caution and proactive measures are necessary to mitigate potential downturns.