2016年-世界发展银行全球_Global_Economic_Prospects_June_2016___Divergences_and_Risks_193页_5mb
报告摘要
Global Economic Prospects Summary (June 2016)
Core Content
The Global Economic Prospects report for June 2016, published by the World Bank Group, examines the global economic outlook and identifies key challenges and risks facing emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). It highlights the persistent divergence between commodity exporters and importers, the impact of low commodity prices, and the broader economic risks that could hinder growth.
Main Viewpoints
- Global Growth Outlook: Global growth is projected at 2.4% in 2016, unchanged from the 2015 pace, and 0.5 percentage point below the January 2016 forecast. Growth is expected to gradually improve to 3.0% by 2018 as commodity prices stabilize.
- Advanced Economies: Advanced economies are forecast to grow at 1.7% in 2016, slightly below the January projection. Growth is expected to remain weak, with subdued external demand and policy uncertainty affecting export growth.
- Emerging and Developing Economies: EMDEs are expected to grow at 3.5% in 2016, with a notable slowdown in commodity-exporting countries. These countries are particularly vulnerable due to persistently low commodity prices, which have not translated into significant growth boosts despite the terms of trade improvements.
- Divergence Between Exporters and Importers: Commodity exporters are struggling with weak growth and economic adjustment, while commodity importers are showing more resilience. However, the growth windfall from low energy prices has been modest.
- Risks to Growth: The report outlines several risks, including:
- A sharper-than-expected slowdown in major emerging markets.
- Rising private sector debt in some large EMDEs.
- Heightened policy and geopolitical uncertainties.
- Slower globalization and the risk of protectionism.
- Deteriorating conditions in key commodity exporters.
- Policy Challenges: Policymakers in EMDEs face limited room for monetary and fiscal stimulus. Structural reforms are emphasized as crucial for long-term growth, particularly in areas such as infrastructure, education, and trade liberalization.
Key Information
Table of Real GDP Growth (Percent Change from Previous Year)
| Region | 2013 | 2014 | 2015e | 2016f | 2017f | 2018f |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Advanced Economies | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| United States | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Euro Area | -0.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Japan | 1.4 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| EMDEs | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Commodity Exporting EMDEs | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Other EMDEs | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 |
| Other EMDEs excluding China | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| East Asia and Pacific | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.1 |
| China | 7.7 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Indonesia | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| Thailand | 2.7 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Europe and Central Asia | 2.3 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Russia | 1.3 | 0.7 | -3.7 | -1.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Turkey | 4.2 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| Poland | 1.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Latin America and the Caribbean | 2.9 | 1.0 | -0.7 | -1.3 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Brazil | 3.0 | 0.1 | -3.8 | -4.0 | -0.2 | 0.8 |
| Mexico | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Argentina | 2.9 | 0.5 | 2.1 | -0.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Middle East and North Africa | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.7 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Iran, Islamic Rep. | -1.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 |
| Egypt, Arab Rep. | 2.1 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| South Asia | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.3 |
| India | 6.6 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| Pakistan | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| Bangladesh | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.0 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| South Africa | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Nigeria | 5.4 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| Angola | 6.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
Commodity Prices and Capital Inflows
| Indicator | 2013 | 2014 | 2015e | 2016f | 2017f | 2018f |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil price | -0.9 | -7.5 | -47.3 | -25.7 | 32.5 | 6.5 |
| Non-energy commodity price index | -7.2 | -4.6 | -15.0 | -12.2 | 10.5 | 2.3 |
| Capital inflows to EMDEs (percent of GDP) | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
Special Focus
1. Recent Credit Surge in Historical Context
- The report highlights the rapid increase in private-sector credit since 2010, particularly in commodity-exporting countries.
- This credit surge has raised concerns about financial vulnerabilities and the potential for economic instability.
- The analysis compares this trend with past episodes and suggests that credit booms are often followed by deleveraging episodes, which can have significant macroeconomic impacts.
2. Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts
- The report discusses the increased uncertainty in global growth forecasts since January 2016.
- It emphasizes the balance of risks for global growth, with a growing tilt toward downside risks.
- The Fan chart methodology is used to illustrate the distribution of growth forecasts and the probability of different growth outcomes.
Policy Recommendations
- Policymakers in EMDEs should prioritize structural reforms to enhance long-term growth prospects.
- These reforms should focus on infrastructure development, education and health investment, and economic diversification.
- Trade liberalization is also recommended to improve growth and living standards.
- The international community is encouraged to support these efforts through cooperative frameworks and policy coordination.
Conclusion
The June 2016 Global Economic Prospects report underscores the divergence and risks in the global economy, particularly for EMDEs. It calls for cautious policy responses and structural reforms to navigate the current economic environment and promote sustainable growth.
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