20180507-中国银河国际证券-STRATEGY_NOTE__STOCK_CONNECT__NORTHBOUND_TRADING_UPDATE_10页_607kb

报告摘要

STOCK CONNECT: NORTHBOUND TRADING UPDATE Summary

Core Content

This document provides an update on the performance of northbound trading in April 2018, focusing on the flow of funds into and out of Chinese A-shares through the Stock Connect program. It highlights the key stocks that saw significant fund inflows and outflows, as well as the underlying factors influencing these movements.

Main Points

Northbound Trading Performance:
- Northbound trading recorded a net inflow of RMB38.7bn in April 2018, marking the strongest in the past six months.
- Southbound trading had a net outflow of HK$8.1bn, the first monthly net outflow since mid-2015.
- The inclusion of A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in late May is cited as a key reason for the strong northbound inflow.
Shanghai-Listed Companies:
- Kweichow Moutai (600519.CH) received the largest net fund inflow of RMB3.6bn, attributed to its high weighting (4.7%) in the MSCI index.
- The top 20 stocks with the highest net fund inflow were mainly financial institutions, including banks and insurance companies.
- Conch Cement (600585.CH) saw a 47% increase in shareholding by northbound investors, driven by favorable cement price trends and a 7.5% discount compared to its H-shares.
Shenzhen-Listed Companies:
- Fund flow preferences were more diversified compared to Shanghai-listed companies.
- Wuliangyi (000858.CH), a white wine stock, had the largest fund inflow in the month.
Recommended Stocks:
- The following stocks are recommended by CGS or CGIS research teams: Kweichow Moutai, Conch Cement, Ping An Insurance, Hengrui Medicine, Sichuan Swellfun, Yangtze Power, Wangfujing, SAIC Motor, China Vanke, Rainbow Department Store, and Aier Eye Hospital.

Key Information

Shanghai-Listed Stocks with Significant Fund Inflows

Ticker	Company Name	Shareholding Change	% Change in Shareholding	Estimated Amount (RMB)	Stake Change (ppt)	Total Stake (%)	Stake Amount (RMB)	Price (RMB)	Market Cap (RMBm)	2018E PER	2019E PER	PBR	2018E Dividend Yield (%)
600519 CH Equity	Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd	5,343,510	7.0%	3,638,477,516	0.43%	6.49%	54,070,198,515	662.87	832,696	23.03	18.88	8.33	2.00
600585 CH Equity	Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd	80,245,556	47.0%	2,684,340,545	1.51%	4.73%	8,720,493,870	34.76	188,093	8.56	8.38	1.96	4.33
601318 CH Equity	Ping An Insurance Group Co Ltd	41,274,512	10.1%	2,657,752,719	0.23%	2.45%	27,198,003,505	60.71	1,109,265	10.78	9.00	2.21	2.63
600276 CH Equity	Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co Ltd	15,778,046	4.0%	1,318,064,748	0.56%	14.59%	34,076,550,257	82.44	233,524	59.27	46.95	14.24	0.15
600066 CH Equity	Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co Ltd	27,373,446	9.8%	590,474,044	1.24%	13.91%	6,388,099,546	20.74	45,917	12.14	11.39	3.10	3.35
600019 CH Equity	Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd	101,210,747	25.7%	897,952,401	0.45%	2.22%	4,454,984,196	9	200,411	9.23	8.50	1.18	5.51
600779 CH Equity	Sichuan Swellfun Co Ltd	13,757,585	37.8%	602,133,293	2.82%	10.26%	2,133,999,105	42.58	20,802	33.34	22.67	11.99	1.95
600030 CH Equity	CITIC Securities Co Ltd	24,826,051	18.6%	471,943,231	0.20%	1.31%	3,070,872,402	19.37	224,941	17.75	15.68	1.55	2.05
600000 CH Equity	Shanghai Pudong Development Bank	30,602,081	25.1%	353,405,716	0.10%	0.52%	1,650,384,187	10.83	317,883	5.71	5.40	0.80	3.01
600660 CH Equity	Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co Ltd	21,138,534	8.3%	496,388,405	0.84%	11.00%	6,501,215,002	23.55	58,046	16.01	13.66	3.05	3.62

Shanghai-Listed Stocks with Significant Fund Outflows

Ticker	Company Name	Shareholding Change	% Change in Shareholding	Estimated Amount (RMB)	Stake Change (ppt)	Total Stake (%)	Stake Amount (RMB)	Price (RMB)	Market Cap (RMBm)	2018E PER	2019E PER	PBR	2018E Dividend Yield (%)
600009 CH Equity	Shanghai International Airport	(5,482,675)	-1.5%	(259,826,853)	-0.28%	18.23%	17,975,156,278	51.17	98,602	22.89	19.97	3.77	1.30
600872 CH Equity	Jionjee Hi-Tech Industrial Co Ltd	(7,497,937)	-29.9%	(178,928,401)	-0.94%	2.20%	425,578,020	24.24	19,310	30.61	25.02	5.83	0.98
603515 CH Equity	Opple Lighting Co Ltd	(2,788,831)	-29.4%	(135,895,331)	-0.48%	1.15%	334,927,854	50.13	29,049	32.76	25.58	7.99	0.98
600600 CH Equity	Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd	(2,659,670)	-19.5%	(113,152,161)	-0.20%	0.81%	470,121,552	42.95	52,842	38.01	32.17	3.26	1.06
600175 CH Equity	Meidu Energy Corp	(26,491,913)	-49.1%	(112,531,759)	-0.74%	0.77%	115,669,930	4.22	15,093	n.a.	n.a.	1.42	n.a.
600720 CH Equity	Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co Ltd	(12,143,335)	-61.8%	(111,252,122)	-1.56%	0.97%	61,377,141	8.17	6,342	7.52	6.31	1.22	4.41
600897 CH Equity	Xiamen International Airport Co Ltd	(1,967,834)	-40.5%	(39,056,326)	-0.66%	0.97%	59,014,245	20.44	6,087	12.58	11.55	1.73	5.68
600584 CH Equity	Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Co Ltd	(3,442,289)	-10.2%	(75,603,537)	-0.25%	2.22%	605,618,782	20.06	27,278	39.33	25.36	2.98	0.25
600491 CH Equity	Long Yuan Construction Group Co Ltd	(4,618,623)	-55.3%	(45,444,819)	-0.30%	0.24%	34,525,084	9.24	14,135	13.63	9.60	1.90	1.52
600803 CH Equity	Gemdale Corp	(3,557,358)	-13.5%	(40,136,360)	-0.08%	0.50%	254,775,360	11.2	50,563	6.68	5.92	1.22	5.44

Conclusion

The northbound trading in April 2018 was characterized by a strong net inflow of RMB38.7bn, primarily driven by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index inclusion. Financial institutions, particularly banks and insurance companies, received significant inflows, with Kweichow Moutai leading due to its high index weighting. The inflow to Conch Cement was attributed to favorable cement prices and a discount to its H-share counterpart. While there was a net outflow of HK$8.1bn for southbound trading, the northbound inflow remained robust, indicating increased investor confidence in Chinese A-shares. The report also highlights the top 20 stocks based on stake changes and percentage changes in stake, providing a comprehensive view of fund movements.