2017年-世界发展银行全球_Somali_Poverty_Profile_June_2017___Findings_from_Wave_1_of_the_Somali_High_Frequency_Survey_152页_3mb

ALI POVERTY PROFILE Summary

Core Content

This report presents findings from Wave 1 of the Somali High Frequency Survey (SHFS), conducted in 2016, providing a detailed analysis of poverty and related socio-economic conditions in Somalia. The data highlights the challenges of poverty, inequality, and access to basic services, with a focus on the impact of remittances and social protection on household welfare.

Main Findings

• Poverty Prevalence: In 2016, nearly every second Somali lived in poverty, with poverty incidence ranging from 26% to 70% across different regions. The North East region had the lowest poverty incidence (27%), while the North West had the highest (50%). In IDP settlements, poverty incidence reached 70%, with over 1.1 million Somalis internally displaced.

• Urban vs. Rural Poverty: Urban poverty incidence varied between 26% (North East) and 57% (Mogadishu), while rural areas showed higher poverty rates (34% to 61%). Despite a decline in poverty incidence between 2013 and 2016, rural households still face greater challenges, including a larger average shortfall from the poverty line (24% vs. 19%).

• Inequality: The Gini coefficient for Somalia is 37, lower than the average of 42 in low-income Sub-Saharan countries. Inequality is more pronounced in urban areas, where poverty and inequality are positively correlated. IDP settlements exhibit the highest levels of both poverty and inequality.

• Education and Literacy: Literacy rates improved in urban areas, with an increase of 10 percentage points among the urban poor (from 48% to 58%) and 6 percentage points among the urban non-poor (from 56% to 62%). In contrast, rural poor saw a decline in literacy (from 41% to 35%), and 65% of them had no education in 2016, compared to 54% in 2013. School attendance also declined among the rural poor, from 52% to 44%, while remaining stable for the rural non-poor.

• Remittances: Approximately 20% of Somali households receive remittances, which constitute a significant portion of their income. Remittances are the main source of income for more than half of recipient households, and their average value is around US$233 per capita. Recipient households are typically urban, wealthier, headed by women, and better educated, but their labor market participation does not differ significantly from non-recipients.

• Impact of Remittances: Households that receive remittances are less likely to be poor than those that do not. However, a decline in remittances is associated with an increased likelihood of falling into poverty, indicating vulnerability to income shocks. Poor households that receive remittances are better able to afford education, which helps mitigate their disadvantages.

• Social Protection (SSNs): Social protection programs (SSNs) have a notable impact on reducing poverty and improving welfare. The impact of SSNs is most pronounced in the North West region, where poverty incidence and gap have decreased significantly. However, the cost of SSNs varies across regions, with the North East having the lowest cost.

• Data Collection and Methodology: The SHFS used a rapid consumption methodology and proxy means testing (PMT) to improve data accuracy. The survey covers 4.9 million Somalis, excluding nomadic and conflict-affected populations. The second wave of the survey is planned for 2017, with expanded coverage.

Key Information

• Data Challenges: Somalia has faced significant data gaps due to political instability and conflict, making it difficult to design effective policies. The SHFS aims to fill this gap by providing reliable, representative data.

• Drought Impact: The current drought has severely affected rangelands in the North East and pre-war regions in Bay and Bakool, leading to crop loss, livestock deaths, and increased food insecurity. Over 6 million people are expected to remain food insecure in 2017.

• Poverty and Shocks: Households dependent on remittances or social protection are more vulnerable to income shocks. Without these, many would fall into poverty, emphasizing the need for alternative income sources and resilience programs.

• Future Focus: The report calls for targeted programs to improve education access and employment opportunities, particularly for the rural poor. It also highlights the importance of labor market participation and healthcare access in reducing poverty and inequality.

Structure of the Report

Part I: Overview of Poverty

• Monetary Poverty: Analysis of poverty incidence, gap, and severity using the international poverty line (US$1.90 at 2011 PPP).
• Multidimensional Deprivation: Examination of non-monetary indicators such as education, health, and housing.
• Evolution of Welfare Conditions: Trends in poverty and inequality in the North West region from 2013 to 2016.

Part II: Deep Dive into Selected Topics

• Remittances: Their role in improving socio-economic outcomes, with a focus on urban areas and household characteristics.
• Child and Youth Poverty: Regional disparities in child and youth poverty, including educational and health indicators.
• Social Protection: Impact of SSNs on poverty reduction and the cost of these programs across regions.

Appendices

• Figures and Tables: Include detailed data on education, labor force participation, consumption, and remittances.
• Methodology: Explains the rapid consumption estimation and proxy means testing used in the survey.
• Sample and Data Collection: Describes the sample size and data cleaning rules applied to ensure accuracy.

Conclusion

The Somali High Frequency Survey provides critical insights into the state of poverty and socio-economic conditions in the country. It underscores the importance of remittances and social protection in mitigating poverty, while highlighting the persistent challenges faced by the rural poor and IDP settlements. The report emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to improve education, healthcare, and labor market outcomes, particularly in regions most affected by the ongoing drought and conflict.