美国企业研究所-2020年代三军制现代化紧缩（英文）-2021.3-102页_6mb

2020s Tri-Service Modernization Crunch Summary

Core Content

The 2020s Tri-Service Modernization Crunch refers to the growing fiscal and strategic challenges the U.S. military faces due to decades of deferred modernization investments. This report outlines the current state of the modernization crisis across the Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Army, highlighting the reasons behind the crisis, its implications, and policy recommendations to address it.

Main Points

• Modernization Spending Spike: The U.S. military is facing a massive spending spike in the 2020s due to the accumulation of deferred modernization investments over the past 30 years. This spike is not just a result of increased demand for modern weapons but also the aging of existing platforms and the need to replace them.

• Historical Context: The modernization crunch has been exacerbated by the Reagan buildup and peace dividend in the 1990s, prioritizing short-term needs during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and budget constraints post-2011 Budget Control Act (BCA). These decisions led to a lack of sustained investment in modern capabilities and a rise in operations and maintenance (O&M) costs for aging systems.

• Unrealistic Budget Projections: The Future Years Defense Program (FYDP) only covers five years of spending, making it difficult to fully assess the scale of the modernization challenge. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that the DOD will need a real-term budget increase of 11% by 2033 to fund existing modernization plans, but such increases are unlikely due to political and economic constraints.

• Technological Complexity and Costs: The cost of modern weapons has risen due to increased technological complexity. For instance, the B-21 Raider includes stealth technology and nuclear capabilities, which significantly raise its cost. Unmanned systems also bring new expenses, especially as they require integration with manned systems and advanced software and network security.

• Underestimated Budgetary Needs: The DOD's budgetary needs are consistently underestimated due to the short-term focus of the FYDP. This has led to a mismatch between strategy and resources, with the military being forced to accept more risk in key theaters due to insufficient funding.

• Strategic Insolvency Risk: The 2018 National Defense Strategy emphasized the need to modernize to counter China and Russia, but it failed to account for the long-term financial and operational consequences of such a shift. The strategy’s myopic focus on peer competitors has left the military under-resourced and unprepared for future threats.

• Service-Specific Challenges:

  • The Navy faces a crisis in shipbuilding, with a 355-ship fleet goal being underfunded, and the Battle Force 2045 plan for a 500+ ship fleet likely unachievable without serious funding.
  • The Marine Corps is deferring modernization due to transformation efforts, but this has left it underprepared for great-power competition.
  • The Air Force is reconsidering its squadron goals, shifting focus from quantity to capability, and has underinvested in conventional platforms.
  • The Army is struggling to maintain end strength, with slow growth and potential future cuts to fund next-generation technologies.

Key Information

• Modernization Crunch: A bow wave of procurement and modernization costs, where a large number of military systems must be replaced or upgraded simultaneously.

• Impact of Delayed Modernization: The military is now overstretched, under-resourced, and less capable to fight in modern conflicts due to years of underinvestment.

• Fiscal Constraints: The U.S. government is struggling with debt and deficit spending, particularly due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This has limited the ability to increase defense budgets.

• Need for Political Leadership: The report stresses that political will and leadership are crucial to addressing the modernization crunch. Concrete action, urgency, and awareness are needed to avoid strategic insolvency.

• Recommendations:

  • Immediate action to relieve procurement pressure.
  • Accelerate the fielding of advanced technologies.
  • Use legacy platforms as testbeds for innovation.
  • Ensure sustained, predictable funding to support modernization efforts.
  • Balance high-end capabilities with expanded capacity.

Conclusion

The 2020s represent a critical decade for the U.S. military, where the consequences of past underinvestment are becoming increasingly apparent. The modernization crunch is a fiscal and strategic challenge that requires urgent attention, realistic planning, and political will to address. Without significant action, the military risks strategic insolvency, operational failures, and loss of readiness in key regions.