2017年-世界发展银行全球_An_Analysis_of_Poverty_in_Myanmar_Part_1___Trends_between_200405_and_2015_86页_2mb

Summary of "An Analysis of Poverty in Myanmar" (August 2017)

Core Content

This report is the first in a two-part poverty analysis series conducted by the Government of Myanmar (GOM) and the World Bank. It provides an overview of poverty trends in Myanmar from 2004/05 to 2015, using data from the Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS) and previous surveys such as the Integrated Household Living Conditions Assessment (IHLCA).

Main Findings

• Poverty Reduction: Myanmar has made significant progress in reducing poverty over the last decade. Using the GOM et al. (2007) methodology, poverty declined from 32.1% in 2004/05 to 25.6% in 2009/10 and further to 19.4% in 2015.
• Using World Bank (2014) methodology: Poverty decreased from 44.5% in 2004/05 to 37.5% in 2009/10, and then to 26.1% in 2015.
• Improvements in Living Standards: There has been an increase in average real expenditure, durable goods ownership, and dietary diversity, indicating overall improvements in living conditions.
• Urban vs. Rural Growth: Urban areas experienced faster growth in expenditures compared to rural areas, though both saw substantial improvements.
• Poverty Trends:
  • Urban poverty fell from 15.7% to 9% using GOM et al. (2007) methodology.
  • Rural poverty decreased from 29.2% to 23.3% using the same methodology.
  • Using World Bank (2014) methodology, urban poverty declined from 34.6% to 19.2%, while rural poverty dropped from 38.5% to 28.8%.
• Inequality Trends:
  • Inequality increased over the last five years, though it started from a low base.
  • This is attributed to the benefits of early economic reforms and liberalizations to better-educated and more capital-rich individuals.
  • The Gini coefficient is used to measure inequality, and it indicates a rise in inequality, consistent with trends in other countries in the region.

Key Recommendations

• Rebase Poverty Measures: The report recommends revising and rebasing the poverty measure to reflect the current needs and living standards of the population in 2015.
• Timing of Revisions: Updates to poverty lines and welfare aggregates are typically recommended every ten years to ensure they remain relevant and reflect changes in consumption patterns and living conditions.
• Reasons for Rebase:
  • The share of food in household consumption has decreased, while non-food items have become more diverse.
  • The number and variety of goods have increased, especially in household assets.
  • Broad economic reforms have shifted spending patterns, allowing households to diversify their consumption.

Methodology and Data

• Surveys Used:
  • IHLCA-I (2004/05): First comprehensive survey used to measure poverty.
  • IHLCA-II (2009/10): Follow-up survey that updated the poverty measurement framework.
  • MPLCS (2015): Nationally representative survey that provided updated data for the 2015 poverty profile.
• Sample Size and Representation:
  • The MPLCS included 3,648 households.
  • The sample was representative at the national, urban/rural, and agro-ecological zone levels.
  • It could not represent state and regional levels.
• Poverty Measurement Concepts:
  • Welfare Aggregate: Captures well-being through monetary measures such as consumption expenditures and income.
  • Poverty Line: Defines the minimum standard of living required to avoid severe deprivation.
  • Headcount Rate: The most common measure of poverty, reflecting the proportion of the population living in poverty.
  • Poverty Gap and Severity: Measure the depth and severity of poverty, showing how far below the poverty line households fall.

Institutional Collaboration

• A Steering Committee and Technical Working Group were established to oversee the survey and analysis.
• The World Bank and Ministry of Planning and Finance collaborated closely on the analysis.
• The Technical Working Group included representatives from UNDP, ADB, UNICEF, WFP, ILO, UNFPA, and IGC.
• The Steering Committee included members from the World Bank, UNDP, and ADB.

Conclusion

The report highlights the progress made in poverty reduction and improved living standards in Myanmar over the last decade. It also underscores the need to update the poverty measurement framework to better reflect the current needs and consumption patterns of the population. The second part of the report, expected to follow, will present a detailed poverty profile using the revised methodology.