20220316-招银国际-Attractive_risk_reward_10页_1mb

报告摘要

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an equity research update on Kingsoft Cloud (KC US), focusing on its financial performance, market position, and valuation. The key aspects include revenue forecasts, EBITDA margins, operating performance, and valuation metrics. The firm maintains a BUY recommendation with a new target price of US$6.37, reflecting a revised outlook on the company's financials and market dynamics.

Main Points

Financial Performance Overview

FY4Q21 Revenue Forecast: Expected to grow by +35% YoY to RMB2,592 million.
- Public Cloud: RMB1,560 million (+15% YoY, -7% QoQ)
- Enterprise Cloud: RMB990 million (+85% YoY, +36% QoQ)
Adj. EBITDA Margin: Expected to deteriorate to -10.8% (vs. -5.8% in FY3Q21), primarily due to:
- Extra IDC/bandwidth costs from lower-than-planned usage.
- Higher opex due to the Camelot acquisition.
Net Loss: Expected to widen to RMB638 million in FY4Q21 (vs. RMB469 million in FY3Q21).

Valuation Metrics

Current Valuation: Trading at 0.5x P/S and 1.0x P/B for FY22E.
Net Cash Position: RMB5.2 billion on hand as of FY3Q21.
Market Cap: US$0.776 billion (RMB4.9 billion).
Downside Risk: Limited due to the share price being at 1x net cash and the firm's strong revenue growth potential.

Key Catalysts

HK Dual Listing: KC announced plans for a dual listing on the HKEx Main Board, which should help mitigate PCAOB inspection risks.
FY21 Results Conference Call: Expected to provide more details on the HK listing progress.

Key Information

Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec)

Metric	FY19A	FY20A	FY21E	FY22E	FY23E
Revenue (RMB mn)	3,956	6,577	8,993	9,892	11,146
YoY growth (%)	78%	66%	37%	10%	13%
Adj. EBITDA (RMB mn)	-418	-119	-435	-201	167
Net Income (RMB mn)	-1,161	-982	-1,582	-1,664	-1,270
EPS (RMB)	-19.58	-6.14	-6.55	-6.88	-5.26

Share Performance

1-month: -60.3%
3-months: -77.9%
6-months: -89.5%
12-months: Strong price performance relative to peers.

Shareholding Structure

Holder	% Ownership
Kingsoft Group (3888 HK)	42.5%
Xiaomi (1810 HK)	13.4%
Mr. Jun LEI	13.4%

Operating Model

Revenue Breakdown:
- Public Cloud Services: Dominant segment with increasing revenue.
- Enterprise Cloud Services: Grew significantly in FY21E due to Camelot integration and project recovery.
- Others: Minor contribution, with a slight increase in FY21E.
Revenue Mix:
- Public Cloud: 69% of total revenue in FY21E.
- Enterprise Cloud: 31% of total revenue in FY21E.
Cost Structure:
- IDC Costs: Majority of cost of sales (59% in FY21E).
- Depreciation and Amortization: 10% of cost of sales in FY21E.
- Staff Costs: Minimal, at 1% of cost of sales.
- Other Costs: 30% of cost of sales in FY21E.

Valuation Comparison

Company	Ticker	Rating	Market Cap (US$ bn)	Price (LC)	FY21E P/S	FY22E P/S	FY21E EV/Sales	FY22E EV/Sales	Sales CAGR FY20-23E	EBITDA Margin FY21
Kingsoft Cloud	KC US	BUY	0.8	3.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.1	19%	-5%
UCloud	688158 CH	NR	1.3	18.8	2.2	1.5	1.9	1.3	49%	8%
Glodon	002410 CH	BUY	8.6	45.8	10.6	8.6	10.0	8.1	23%	12%
Kingdee	268 HK	NR	6.9	15.6	10.4	8.3	9.6	7.7	26%	4%

Summary

KC US is expected to deliver strong revenue growth in FY4Q21 but faces challenges with adj. EBITDA margin deterioration and operating losses.
The firm is trading at 1x net cash, which limits downside risk.
HK dual listing is a key catalyst that should help mitigate de-listing risks.
The BUY recommendation is maintained due to strong growth potential and valuation discount.
Public Cloud growth is expected to slow, while Enterprise Cloud continues to expand.
Operating costs are increasing due to the Camelot acquisition and lower-than-expected CDN demand.
The target price has been revised to US$6.37, reflecting a 1x P/S multiple for FY22E.
KC's valuation is in line with its peers, with a 12-month forward P/S in a 0.5x to 1.0x range.