20160316-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_31页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 16 March 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of market insights and company performance for various regions, including Indonesia, China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, with a detailed focus on China General Nuclear Corporation (CGN) and Nexteer Automotive Group (Nexteer). It also includes key indices, top picks, corporate events, and financial metrics.

Main Points by Region

Indonesia

Matahari Department Store: Initiated coverage with a target price of Rp21,200. The company is expected to see a store-level net income CAGR of 35% due to the ramp-up of new stores.
Cement Sector: February 2016 sales were 4.3mt (+0.1% yoy, -14% mom). 2M16 sales of 9.3mt (+2.5% yoy) are in line with the 2016 target of 64mt. Maintained OVERWEIGHT with INTP as the top pick.

China

China General Nuclear Corp (CGN):
- 2015 earnings slightly beat expectations due to non-recurring items.
- Maintained BUY with a target price of HK$3.10.
- Earnings growth expected to be resilient, with nuclear power having the best earnings visibility among power sources.
- Net profit for 2015 was Rmb6,594m, up 6.5% yoy.
- EPS was 0.15, up from 0.19 in 2014, reflecting a -21.1% change.
- Dividend payout ratio increased to 29% from 2.0% in 2014, with a proposed final dividend of Rmb0.42/share.
Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK):
- 2015 earnings grew 26% yoy to US$205m, in line with expectations.
- China emerged as the new major growth driver, with revenue and EBITDA growth of 56.5% and 49% respectively.
- Maintained BUY with a target price of HK$10.50.
- Revenue CAGR of 10% expected for 2016-18 due to SUV and electric-powered steering (EPS) growth.
- Order backlog remained flat at US$11.5b.

Malaysia

Banking Sector: Asset quality metrics remained stable, with NPL benign, but residential property showed signs of stress. Maintained MARKET WEIGHT.

Singapore

Singapore Airlines (SIA SP):
- YTD pax load factor increased by 3ppt.
- Scoot's traffic grew by 47%.
- Maintained BUY with a target price of S$13.90.

Thailand

Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction (STEC TB):
- Expected improved performance from 2H16 as mega projects start contributing to sales and earnings.
- Maintained BUY with a target price of Bt26.00.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17251.5	0.1	1.7	8.0	-1.0
S&P 500	2015.9	-0.2	1.9	8.1	1.4
FTSE 100	6140.0	-0.6	0.2	5.4	1.6
AS30	5168.6	-1.4	-0.0	4.2	3.3
CSI 300	3074.8	0.3	-1.1	1.2	-17.6
FSSTI	2839.4	-0.3	2.2	7.4	1.5
HSCEI	8605.6	-0.9	1.2	7.2	10.9
HSI	20288.8	-0.7	1.4	6.1	7.4
JCI	4849.8	-0.6	0.4	2.2	5.6
KLCI	1690.9	-0.6	0.2	1.6	0.1
KOSPI	1970.0	-0.1	1.2	4.3	0.4
Nikkei 225	17117.1	-0.7	2.0	6.6	-10.1
SET	1382.9	-0.8	0.6	7.3	7.4
TWSE	8611.2	-1.6	-0.6	4.9	3.3
BDI	396	0.8	8.2	34.2	-17.2
CPO (RM/mt)	2518	0.6	2.4	3.0	14.4
Brent Crude	39	-2.0	-2.3	16.0	3.9

Top Picks

BUY

Beijing Capital (694 HK): CP 7.80, TP 11.40, Upside +46.2%
ICBC (1398 HK): CP 4.21, TP 5.05, Upside +20.0%
Bank BJB (BJBR IJ): CP 925.00, TP 1,140.00, Upside +23.2%
WCT Holdings (WCTHG MK): CP 1.63, TP 2.05, Upside +25.8%
Maybank (MAY MK): CP 8.73, TP 9.55, Upside +9.4%
City Developments (CIT SP): CP 7.50, TP 10.86, Upside +44.8%
DBS (DBS SP): CP 15.37, TP 17.48, Upside +13.7%
Charoen (CPF TB): CP 21.50, TP 30.00, Upside +39.5%
Siam (SCC TB): CP 464.00, TP 630.00, Upside +35.8%

SELL

Spurakencana (SAKP MK): CP 2.08, TP 1.43, Upside -31.3%
Sembcorp (SMM SP): CP 1.68, TP 0.88, Upside -47.6%

Key Assumptions

Region	GDP (yoy) 2014	GDP (yoy) 2015F	GDP (yoy) 2016F
US	2.4	2.5	2.5
Euro Zone	0.9	1.5	1.7
Japan	-0.1	0.5	1.0
Singapore	2.9	2.0	2.7
Malaysia	6.0	4.9	4.8
Thailand	0.9	2.7	3.2
Indonesia	5.0	4.8	5.4
Hong Kong	2.5	1.8	1.5
China	7.3	6.5	6.7

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Begin	Close
TCL Display Technology Holdings Roadshow	Taipei	21 Mar	22 Mar
ASEAN Conference	Taiwan	22 Mar	23 Mar
Country Garden Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	24 Mar	24 Mar
Wenzhou Kangning Hospital Roadshow	Shanghai	31 Mar	31 Mar
Concord New Energy Roadshow	Hong Kong	31 Mar	31 Mar
Shenzhen Investment Corporate Roadshow	Taipei	19 Apr	20 Apr

Financial Highlights for China General Nuclear Corp (1816 HK)

2015 Results

Revenue: Rmb22,875m (+12.0% yoy)
Gross profit: Rmb11,133m (+10.5% yoy)
Attributable net profit: Rmb6,594m (+6.5% yoy)
EPS: 0.15 (vs 0.19 in 2014)
DPS: 0.42
GPM: 47.9% (vs 48.6% in 2014)
NPM: 34.7% (vs 37.8% in 2014)
ROE: 11.4% (vs 13.7% in 2014)

Financial Forecasts

Metric	2015	2016F	2017F	2018F
Net turnover	22,875	26,324	33,788	44,294
EBITDA	15,862	16,475	20,255	25,843
Net profit (rep./act.)	6,594	7,369	8,734	11,140
EPS (Fen)	14.5	16.2	19.2	24.5
PE (x)	13.8	12.4	10.4	8.2
P/B (x)	1.6	1.3	1.3	1.3
EV/EBITDA (x)	14.2	13.7	11.1	8.7
Dividend yield (%)	2.1	2.3	2.8	3.5
Net margin (%)	28.8	28.0	25.8	25.2
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%)	185.9	155.9	167.1	180.8
Interest cover (x)	5.3	5.2	5.2	5.2
ROE (%)	11.6	10.4	12.2	16.2

Valuation and Recommendation

CGN: Maintained BUY, but cut target price to HK$3.10 (16x 2016F PE), as the market had factored in weak electricity demand.
Nexteer: Maintained BUY with a target price of HK$10.50 (10.7x 2016F PE), reflecting strong earnings growth and high visibility in the SUV and EPS segments.

Earnings and Risk Factors

CGN: Lowered net profit forecasts for 2016 and 2017 by 1.4% and 4.4% due to project pipeline updates.
Nexteer: Upside risk from stronger-than-expected China segment growth, and downside risk from a slower-than-expected US auto sales.

Conclusion

The document highlights positive growth expectations for CGN and Nexteer, with China becoming a key growth driver. Matahari Department Store is expected to grow with new store openings. Malaysia's banking sector remains stable but faces residential property risks. Singapore Airlines and Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction show promising performance. The BUY recommendation is maintained for several key stocks, while SELL is advised for others due to weaker financials and outlook.