2013年-世界发展银行全球_Africas_Macroeconomic_Story_49页_743kb

Africa's Macroeconomic Story Summary

Core Content

This working paper provides an analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa's macroeconomic performance over the past several decades, highlighting the region's transition from poor growth and instability to more sustained and resilient growth. The authors examine the role of macroeconomic policies, external shocks, and resource dependence in shaping this transformation.

Main Views

• Historical Growth Trends:

  • Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa was historically weak, especially from the mid-1970s to mid-1990s, marked by boom-bust cycles.
  • Since the mid-1990s, growth has become more stable and robust, averaging 1.8% per capita real GDP growth, up from -0.8% in the previous 20 years.
  • The region's growth is projected to increase to 2.5% over the next few years.

• Macroeconomic Stability:

  • Improved macroeconomic stability, including lower inflation, debt sustainability, and more credible fiscal and monetary policies, has been a key factor in the region's growth acceleration.
  • The authors emphasize that macroeconomic stability is necessary but not sufficient for growth, as it interacts with other factors like policy choices and external conditions.

• Role of External Shocks:

  • Africa has shown resilience to external shocks, such as the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and spikes in fuel and food prices.
  • Growth has responded to specific external environments and policy decisions rather than to a single factor.

• Resource Dependence:

  • Resource-rich countries have experienced higher growth, but the volatility of resource revenues poses challenges for fiscal and monetary planning.
  • The "resource curse" hypothesis is discussed, with mixed empirical evidence on whether resource wealth is a blessing or a curse.
  • Resource abundance can lead to Dutch disease, where a strong currency undermines non-resource sectors.

• Policy Responses:

  • Policy makers have increasingly managed volatile resource revenues and implemented structural reforms to improve economic performance.
  • There has been a shift from excessive fiscal deficits and overreliance on trade taxes to more sustainable fiscal positions and better institutional frameworks.

• Fragile States:

  • Growth in fragile states has improved in recent years, particularly in resource-abundant countries like Sierra Leone, Liberia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where post-conflict economic activity has been bolstered by increased mining output.
  • Despite this progress, growth remains uneven across the region.

• Debt and Fiscal Policy:

  • Debt burdens have declined significantly due to HIPC/MDRI initiatives, giving countries more fiscal room to invest in growth-enhancing expenditures and social spending.
  • Rising investor interest in frontier markets and the development of domestic debt markets are expanding the range of financing options available to African countries.

Key Information

• Growth Performance:

  • Sub-Saharan Africa's average growth rate was below that of other developing regions in the early decades after independence.
  • The region has experienced a growth acceleration since the mid-1990s, with real GDP per capita growth averaging 1.8% since 1995.
  • The growth acceleration is not uniform across all countries and is more pronounced in certain subgroups like oil exporters.

• Policy Impact:

  • Improved macroeconomic policy and institutional reforms have played a central role in the region's growth resurgence.
  • However, the literature on Africa's growth is inconclusive, with varying explanations for the improved performance.

• External Factors:

  • Commodity price increases have had a positive impact on growth in resource-rich countries.
  • External shocks, such as the 2008-2009 financial crisis, have not derailed growth, indicating improved resilience.

• Future Challenges:

  • The region faces new macroeconomic challenges, including managing volatile resource revenues and navigating potential upward trends in global interest rates.
  • The development of complex financing arrangements, especially in infrastructure projects, will bring new fiscal commitments and contingencies.

Stylized Facts

• Growth Episodes:

  • Growth surges have been episodic and not necessarily preceded by major policy changes.
  • The number of countries experiencing growth surges has increased, while the number of countries with declines has decreased.

• Geographic Differences:

  • Landlocked countries have outperformed coastal countries in recent years, reversing a trend observed in the 1960s.

• Commodity Exporters:

  • Commodity prices have had a significant impact on growth, especially in resource-rich countries.
  • The growth acceleration in oil exporters is more pronounced than in non-oil resource-rich countries.

• Fragile States:

  • Growth in fragile states has improved, but remains highly variable.
  • The trend growth in some fragile states, particularly those with resource abundance, has outperformed other countries.

• Cross-Regional Comparison:

  • Africa's growth performance has historically lagged behind other developing regions, but this gap has narrowed significantly since the early 1990s, especially when excluding China and India.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while macroeconomic stability has played a key role in Africa's growth resurgence, the region still faces significant challenges, particularly related to resource volatility, governance, and the sustainability of growth. The authors emphasize the need for continued policy reform and better management of external and internal economic conditions to ensure long-term growth and development.