UBS_Economics-Global_Economics_Strategy_UBS_World_at_a_Glance_Kapteyn-113009152_33页_3mb

报告摘要

UBS Global Economics & Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document provides a monthly summary of UBS's views on global economics and investment strategy, focusing on key trends, forecasts, and market implications. It outlines the current economic outlook, potential policy shifts, and strategic recommendations across major asset classes and regions.

Main Economies Overview

United States

Growth: Real GDP rose 3.2% in 2023, is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2024, 1.7% in 2025, and further to 1.6% in 2026 due to tariffs, before rebounding to 2.0% in 2027.
Unemployment: The unemployment rate is forecasted to rise to 4.3% in mid-2025 and then fall to 4.2% in 2026, with a projected return to 4.1% in 2027.
Inflation: Core PCE inflation is at 2.8% in 2024, expected to fall to 2.5% in Q2 2025, 2.3% in 2025Q4, and then rise to 2.4% in 2026 due to tariffs, before decreasing to 2.0% in 2027.
Interest Rates: The Fed is expected to cut rates in March 2025 (first of four cuts), with a total of 100 bps in 2025. Rate cuts are expected to be limited in 2026 due to potential tariff impacts.
Policy Uncertainty: The new administration is expected to implement significant tariff changes, primarily affecting growth in 2026 and beyond. Immigration control and fiscal policies are also anticipated to play a key role.

Eurozone

Growth: Eurozone growth is expected to remain at around 1.1% in 2024 and 2025, with a slight slowdown expected due to weak consumer demand and potential policy changes.
Inflation: Eurozone inflation is expected to ease, with core inflation at 2.1% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025, while headline inflation is forecasted to decline further.
Interest Rates: The ECB is expected to continue cutting rates at a quarterly pace, and the BoE is anticipated to cut rates again in February 2025.

China

Growth: China's growth is expected to slow from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025, with a potential slowdown in 2026 due to tariffs.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to fall from 0.1% in 2024 to -0.2% in 2025, with limited tariff impact in 2024.

Japan

Growth: Japan's growth is expected to slow from 1.1% in 2024 to 0.6% in 2025.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to fall from 2.2% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025.
Interest Rates: The BoJ is expected to raise rates slightly, with a 25bp hike at the January 2024 meeting.

Investment Strategy

Equity Strategy

Preference is given to quality and defensive stocks, including the UK market.
Cyclicals: Some sectors like financials are still considered good inflation hedges.
Tech: More selective on tech, preferring software over other areas.
Recommendation: Selling SPX puts to fund VIX calls.

FX Strategy

Preferred currencies: USD, JPY, and CAD.
Avoided currencies: CHF, EUR, and GBP.
Emerging Markets: Short EMFX (CNH, MXN, INR).
Inflation Impact: Global inflation is falling rapidly, even in 'sticky' components, suggesting more easing than currently priced.

Rates Strategy

US long end: Uncertain due to potential tariff impacts, but the front end (2-year and 10-year) looks attractive.
Term Premia: Rising, but real rates are still high.
Expected Rate Cuts: Fed is expected to cut rates in March 2025, with the ECB likely to continue cutting at a quarterly pace.

Credit Strategy

Spreads: Expected to remain rangebound.
Hedge: Long CDX HY vs Xover is recommended as a hedge against tariff risk.

EM Strategy

Best Risk/Reward: Local rates, with a basket of four currencies suggested.
Tariff Impact: Expected to influence EM growth and inflation in 2026.

Key Messages

Global Growth: Sideways at slightly sub-par levels, heavily influenced by US policy, especially tariffs.
Inflation: Global inflation is falling rapidly, even in 'sticky' components, allowing for more easing than priced by markets.
Policy Uncertainty: The new US administration introduces uncertainty, with potential for significant tariff changes and immigration policies.
Market Volatility: Expected to remain around a slowing growth trend, with central banks likely to decouple due to divergent inflation dynamics.

Summary Table

Variable	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Real GDP (annualized)	3.2%	2.4%	1.7%	1.6%	2.0%
Unemployment rate	3.8%	4.2%	4.3%	4.2%	4.1%
PCE inflation	2.8%	2.5%	2.1%	2.3%	2.0%
Core PCE inflation	3.2%	2.8%	2.3%	2.3%	2.0%

Key Figures

Figure 1: Contributions to deviation from long-run global growth average (2023: 2.4%, long-run average: 2.84%).
Figure 2: Global inflation: 'Sticky' components slowing rapidly.
Figure 3: Inflation progress temporarily stalled but expected to resume, with labor market slowing in line with growth, and FOMC resuming easing.