UBS Global Economic Forecast Database Summary
Core Content
The UBS Global Economic Forecast Database provides comprehensive economic forecasts for over 50 indicators across approximately 40 countries and regions. These forecasts are accessible via an Excel file and are also circulated weekly in a summarized format. The document highlights changes in forecasts compared to the previous week and compares UBS forecasts with the consensus.
Main Highlights
- UBS World at a Glance: A summary of views on main economies and asset classes has been published.
- Inflation Monthly Reports: UBS has released updates on US and European inflation.
- UK GDP Forecast Cut: The UK's 2024 and 2025 GDP forecasts were reduced by 0.1pp and 0.4pp respectively, to 0.8% and 1.1%.
- Bank of Indonesia: Surprised with a 25 bp rate cut, with expectations of three more cuts this year.
- FX Outlook for 2025: An updated forecast on foreign exchange outlook was published.
Key Forecasts
Real GDP Growth (Annualized)
| Country/Region |
2024F |
2025F |
2026F |
| US |
2.8% |
2.1% |
1.6% |
| Japan |
-0.2% |
1.1% |
0.6% |
| Canada |
1.2% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
| UK |
0.8% |
1.1% |
1.3% |
| Switzerland |
1.4% |
1.3% |
1.5% |
| Sweden |
0.6% |
2.1% |
2.2% |
| Eurozone |
0.7% |
0.9% |
1.1% |
| Germany |
-0.1% |
0.6% |
0.8% |
| France |
1.1% |
0.9% |
1.2% |
| Italy |
0.5% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
| Spain |
3.1% |
2.3% |
1.8% |
| Greece |
2.5% |
2.8% |
2.3% |
| EMEA |
2.8% |
2.7% |
2.6% |
| Turkey |
3.0% |
2.6% |
3.0% |
| South Africa |
0.7% |
2.1% |
2.3% |
| Kazakhstan |
3.6% |
5.1% |
4.0% |
| Czech Republic |
1.0% |
2.3% |
2.5% |
| Hungary |
0.7% |
2.2% |
3.6% |
| Poland |
2.9% |
3.2% |
3.4% |
| Russia |
3.5% |
2.1% |
1.6% |
| UAE |
3.8% |
3.9% |
4.2% |
| Saudi Arabia |
1.2% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
| Asia (ex Japan) |
4.8% |
4.4% |
3.9% |
| Australia |
1.0% |
1.9% |
2.2% |
| New Zealand |
-0.6% |
1.0% |
2.6% |
| Hong Kong |
2.5% |
2.0% |
1.3% |
| Singapore |
4.0% |
2.6% |
1.0% |
| Korea |
2.2% |
1.9% |
1.3% |
| Taiwan |
4.2% |
3.2% |
2.4% |
| Malaysia |
5.3% |
4.6% |
4.0% |
| Thailand |
2.7% |
3.1% |
2.1% |
| Indonesia |
5.0% |
5.0% |
4.8% |
| Philippines |
5.7% |
6.0% |
5.7% |
| India |
6.3% |
6.3% |
6.6% |
| China |
4.8% |
4.0% |
3.0% |
| Latin America |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.8% |
| World |
3.2% |
3.0% |
2.7% |
CPI Inflation (Annual Average)
| Country/Region |
2024F |
2025F |
2026F |
| US |
3.0% |
2.6% |
2.5% |
| Japan |
2.6% |
2.2% |
2.0% |
| Canada |
2.4% |
2.2% |
2.1% |
| UK |
2.5% |
2.4% |
2.1% |
| Switzerland |
1.1% |
0.5% |
0.9% |
| Sweden |
1.9% |
1.6% |
1.8% |
| Eurozone |
2.4% |
2.1% |
2.0% |
| Germany |
2.5% |
2.4% |
1.9% |
| France |
2.3% |
1.0% |
1.4% |
| Italy |
1.1% |
1.7% |
1.6% |
| Spain |
2.9% |
2.3% |
2.2% |
| Greece |
2.7% |
2.1% |
2.0% |
| EMEA |
15.9% |
9.8% |
7.0% |
| Turkey |
58.5% |
28.5% |
18.6% |
| South Africa |
4.5% |
3.6% |
4.7% |
| Kazakhstan |
8.7% |
7.9% |
6.1% |
| Czech Republic |
2.4% |
2.3% |
2.0% |
| Hungary |
3.7% |
3.8% |
3.1% |
| Poland |
3.8% |
4.1% |
3.1% |
| Russia |
8.4% |
7.5% |
5.5% |
| UAE |
2.1% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
| Saudi Arabia |
1.6% |
1.9% |
2.3% |
| Asia (ex Japan) |
1.9% |
1.5% |
1.4% |
| Australia |
3.2% |
2.5% |
2.8% |
| New Zealand |
2.9% |
2.1% |
2.1% |
| Hong Kong |
2.0% |
1.9% |
1.1% |
| Singapore |
2.4% |
1.6% |
1.9% |
| Korea |
2.3% |
1.9% |
1.7% |
| Taiwan |
2.1% |
1.8% |
1.6% |
| Malaysia |
1.9% |
2.2% |
2.2% |
| Thailand |
0.5% |
1.1% |
1.2% |
| Indonesia |
2.3% |
1.9% |
2.4% |
| Philippines |
3.2% |
2.7% |
2.8% |
| India |
4.8% |
4.2% |
4.3% |
| China |
0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
| Latin America |
29.4% |
8.3% |
5.9% |
| Venezuela |
112.5% |
52.5% |
65.0% |
Current Account (as % of GDP)
| Country/Region |
2024F |
2025F |
2026F |
| US |
-3.6% |
-3.6% |
-3.5% |
| Japan |
4.6% |
5.0% |
5.3% |
| Canada |
-0.4% |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
| UK |
-2.3% |
-2.4% |
-2.4% |
| Switzerland |
8.2% |
7.6% |
8.0% |
| Sweden |
7.4% |
7.5% |
7.6% |
| Eurozone |
2.3% |
2.2% |
2.1% |
| Germany |
7.0% |
6.9% |
6.7% |
| France |
-1.0% |
-0.9% |
-0.9% |
| Italy |
-4.0% |
-3.4% |
-3.2% |
| Spain |
-3.3% |
-3.2% |
-3.1% |
| Greece |
-6.1% |
-5.6% |
-4.6% |
| EMEA |
1.2% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
| Turkey |
-0.8% |
-0.8% |
-1.1% |
| South Africa |
-1.5% |
-2.3% |
-2.1% |
| Kazakhstan |
-3.4% |
-3.2% |
-2.9% |
| Czech Republic |
-2.8% |
-2.3% |
-1.7% |
| Hungary |
-4.5% |
-4.0% |
-3.5% |
| Poland |
-5.7% |
-5.5% |
-4.5% |
| Russia |
-1.7% |
-0.8% |
-0.8% |
| UAE |
4.2% |
2.7% |
2.9% |
| Saudi Arabia |
0.9% |
-1.0% |
-0.9% |
| Asia (ex Japan) |
1.4% |
1.5% |
1.2% |
| Australia |
-2.1% |
-2.6% |
-3.0% |
| New Zealand |
-6.2% |
-5.4% |
-5.2% |
| Hong Kong |
6.6% |
6.8% |
7.3% |
| Singapore |
19.2% |
18.5% |
16.2% |
| Korea |
3.6% |
4.3% |
4.6% |
| Taiwan |
15.0% |
16.4% |
16.8% |
| Malaysia |
1.3% |
1.6% |
3.9% |
| Thailand |
-3.6% |
-4.4% |
-3.0% |
| Indonesia |
-1.3% |
-1.5% |
-1.5% |
| Philippines |
-5.7% |
-5.3% |
-4.8% |
| India |
-7.9% |
-7.4% |
-7.0% |
| China |
-4.7% |
-5.5% |
-5.8% |
| Latin America |
-1.5% |
-1.3% |
-1.7% |
| World |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
Fiscal Balance (as % of GDP)
| Country/Region |
2024F |
2025F |
2026F |
| US |
-6.5% |
-6.6% |
-6.6% |
| Japan |
-3.6% |
-4.6% |
-4.4% |
| Canada |
-1.6% |
-1.5% |
-1.2% |
| UK |
-4.5% |
-3.9% |
-3.2% |
| Switzerland |
0.6% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
| Sweden |
-1.9% |
-1.4% |
-0.5% |
| Eurozone |
-3.1% |
-2.6% |
-2.2% |
| Germany |
-2.5% |
-1.8% |
-1.3% |
| France |
-6.1% |
-5.2% |
-4.2% |
| Italy |
-4.0% |
-3.4% |
-3.2% |
| Spain |
-3.3% |
-3.2% |
-3.1% |
| Greece |
-0.9% |
-0.6% |
-0.8% |
| EMEA |
-2.7% |
-2.3% |
-1.9% |
| Turkey |
-5.0% |
-4.0% |
-3.5% |
| South Africa |
-4.6% |
-4.0% |
-3.7% |
| Kazakhstan |
-2.0% |
-1.3% |
0.8% |
| Czech Republic |
-2.8% |
-2.3% |
-1.7% |
| Hungary |
-4.5% |
-4.0% |
-3.5% |
| Poland |
-5.7% |
-5.5% |
-4.5% |
| Russia |
-1.7% |
-0.8% |
-0.8% |
| UAE |
5.0% |
5.0% |
4.5% |
| Saudi Arabia |
-2.6% |
-3.5% |
-3.1% |
| Asia (ex Japan) |
-4.4% |
-4.8% |
-4.9% |
| Australia |
-0.9% |
-1.3% |
-1.2% |
| New Zealand |
-2.2% |
-2.1% |
-1.1% |
| Hong Kong |
-1.7% |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
| Singapore |
-0.4% |
-0.8% |
-0.3% |
| Korea |
-1.8% |
-1.0% |
-1.0% |
| Taiwan |
-1.7% |
-0.8% |
-1.2% |
| Malaysia |
-4.2% |
-3.8% |
-3.8% |
| Thailand |
-3.6% |
-4.4% |
-3.0% |
| Indonesia |
-2.7% |
-2.5% |
-2.8% |
| Philippines |
-5.7% |
-5.3% |
-4.8% |
| India |
-7.9% |
-7.4% |
-7.0% |
| China |
-4.7% |
-5.5% |
-5.8% |
| Latin America |
-5.6% |
-5.4% |
-5.5% |
| World |
-4.7% |
-4.7% |
-4.6% |
Forecast Changes vs Last Week
| Country/Region |
Real GDP 2024F |
Real GDP 2025F |
CPI 2024F |
CPI 2025F |
Policy Rate 2024F |
Policy Rate 2025F |
FX vs USD 2024F |
FX vs USD 2025F |
| US |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
| Japan |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Canada |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| UK |
-0.4 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
| Switzerland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Sweden |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Eurozone |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
-0.08 |
| Germany |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
| France |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.6 |
-0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
| Italy |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
| Spain |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
| Greece |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
| EMEA |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.7 |
-0.1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Turkey |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-4.0 |
-1.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| South Africa |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.5 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kazakhstan |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Czech Republic |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
| Hungary |
-0.3 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
-4.0 |
24.0 |
| Poland |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
-0.08 |
-0.06 |
| Russia |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
-8.5 |
-1.8 |
| UAE |
-1.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Saudi Arabia |
-1.0 |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Asia (ex Japan) |
-0.1 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Australia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
-0.05 |
-0.03 |
| New Zealand |
-0.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.05 |
-0.03 |
| Hong Kong |
-0.2 |
-1.0 |
-0.1 |
-0.8 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
| Singapore |
0.0 |
-1.3 |
-0.4 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Korea |
0.1 |
-0.7 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
| Taiwan |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Malaysia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Thailand |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Indonesia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
- |
- |
| Philippines |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| India |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| China |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Latin America |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| World |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Deviation from Consensus
| Country/Region |
Real GDP 2024F |
Real GDP 2025F |
CPI 2024F |
CPI 2025F |
Policy Rate 2024F |
Policy Rate 2025F |
FX vs USD 2024F |
FX vs USD 2025F |
| US |
0.0 |
-0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
| Japan |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
| Canada |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.02 |
0.04 |
| UK |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.10 |
-0.10 |
| Switzerland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
| Sweden |
0.2 |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
| Eurozone |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.06 |
-0.08 |
| Germany |
0.2 |
-0.2 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| France |
0.1 |
0.1 |
-0.6 |
-0.4 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Italy |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Spain |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Greece |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| EMEA |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
-0.7 |
-0.1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Turkey |
0.0 |
-0.6 |
-4.0 |
-1.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| South Africa |
0.4 |
0.4 |
-0.5 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kazakhstan |
0.1 |
-0.5 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Czech Republic |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
| Hungary |
-0.3 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
-4.0 |
24.0 |
| Poland |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
-0.08 |
-0.06 |
| Russia |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
-8.5 |
-1.8 |
| UAE |
-1.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Saudi Arabia |
-1.0 |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Asia (ex Japan) |
-0.1 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Australia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
-0.05 |
-0.03 |
| New Zealand |
-0.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.05 |
-0.03 |
| Hong Kong |
-0.2 |
-1.0 |
-0.1 |
-0.8 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
| Singapore |
0.0 |
-1.3 |
-0.4 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Korea |
0.1 |
-0.7 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
| Taiwan |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Malaysia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Thailand |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Indonesia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
- |
- |
| Philippines |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| India |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| China |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Latin America |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| World |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Key Assumptions
| Indicator |
2025 End |
2026 End |
| EUR/USD |
0.99 |
1.00 |
| USD/JPY |
150.0 |
145.0 |
| GBP/USD |
1.18 |
1.19 |
| EUR/CHF |
0.92 |
0.90 |
| USD/RMB |
7.60 |
7.70 |
| 10y US Treasury Yield |
4.25 |
4.40 |
| 10y Bund Yield |
2.10 |
2.20 |
| 10y JGB |
1.75 |
1.90 |
| 10y Gilts |
4.10 |
4.10 |
| Brent Oil Price (avq) |
75.0 |
75.0 |
Summary
The UBS Global Economic Forecast Database offers detailed economic projections for various countries and regions. It includes forecasts for real GDP, consumer prices, current account balances, and fiscal positions, as well as comparisons to the previous week and consensus. The document also highlights the UBS World at a Glance, US and European inflation reports, and policy rate expectations. Notable changes include the UK's GDP forecast cuts and the Bank of Indonesia's rate cuts. The
