2025-05-15-Jefferies-CTS_Eventim（EVD）_强大的艺人储备和强劲的需求-目标价上调至127欧元_13页_591kb
报告摘要
- Strong Buy Recommendation: Jefferies raises the price target from €100 to €127 (+17%) for CTS Eventim, citing robust demand in ticketing and live entertainment.
- Reasons for Price Target Increase: Revised financial models with higher EBITDA estimates (up 2-5%) for 2025-2027 and a revised mid-term growth rate to ~6%, supported by strong Live Nation Q1 results and internal metrics like ticket volume growth (e.g., 25% YoY in mid-April).
- Consolidation Benefits: Acquisitions like SeeTickets (June 2024) and France Billet (Dec 2024) are expected to add €15-20 million EBITDA in 2025 and €25-30m in 2026-27.
- Financial Projections: Revenue growth of 7-10% for 2025-27, with adj. EBITDA exceeding consensus. 2025 guidance aligns with modest sales and EBITDA increases for the Group and Ticketing segment.
- Valuation: DCF-based PT at €127 (20x EV/EBITDA 2026), reflecting a favorable position in Europe's ticketing market.
- Risks: Regulatory, IT security, competition, and macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., consumer demand normalization).
- DCF Model: Base case assumes ~8% EBITDA CAGR until 2027, with upside scenarios for higher growth or pricing.
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