2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Remittances_and_Macroeconomic_Volatility_in_African_Countries_37页_966kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Remittances and Macroeconomic Volatility in African Countries"

Core Content

This working paper by Ahmat Jidoud investigates the impact of remittances on macroeconomic volatility in African countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with financial frictions. It analyzes both the empirical evidence and theoretical mechanisms through which remittances influence output and consumption volatility.

Main Findings

1. Empirical Evidence

Remittances and Macroeconomic Volatility:
- Remittances, as a share of GDP, significantly smooth output volatility.
- Their impact on consumption volatility is relatively small and statistically insignificant.
- Remittances absorb between 3.8% and 22% of GDP shocks.
- Consumption is more volatile than output, which is a well-established stylized fact in developing countries.
- The correlation between output and remittances is negative, suggesting that remittances act as a stabilizing force for output.
Risk Sharing:
- Remittances have a positive and significant risk-sharing effect.
- They absorb between 3.7% and 22% of GDP shocks.
- The effectiveness of remittances in risk sharing is greater than that of capital and credit markets.
- The underestimation of remittances is attributed to informal transfers, misreporting, and misclassification into other revenue streams.

2. Theoretical Channels

Wealth Effect on Labor Supply:
- An increase in remittances reduces the labor supply due to the negative wealth effect.
- This leads to a lower response of output to shocks, thus smoothing macroeconomic fluctuations.
Financial Frictions:
- Remittances reduce financial frictions by improving access to financial markets for recipients.
- This can enhance creditworthiness and promote financial development.
- In countries with underdeveloped financial systems, remittances are more stabilizing.

Key Insights

Stabilizing Role of Remittances:
- Remittances act as automatic stabilizers by cushioning macroeconomic shocks.
- They reduce the volatility of output more effectively than consumption.
Micro vs. Macro Effects:
- At the micro level, remittances may have acyclical or countercyclical effects depending on household income.
- At the macro level, they tend to be countercyclical, absorbing shocks and reducing macroeconomic fluctuations.
Policy Implications:
- Promoting financial development is crucial for maximizing the stabilizing effect of remittances.
- Countries should leverage remittances to improve access to credit and reduce macroeconomic volatility.

Methodology

The paper uses a DSGE model with financial frictions to analyze the theoretical mechanisms.
Empirical analysis is conducted using Generalized Least Squares (GLS) and Instrumental Variable (IV) methods.
The Hausmann test and variance decomposition are used to assess the appropriateness of the random effects model.

Data and Statistics

Remittances to Africa:
- Increased from $9.1 billion in 1990 to nearly $40 billion in 2010.
- Remittances are more stable than other financial flows (FDI, private debt, portfolio equity).
Volatility of Financial Flows:
- Remittances are less volatile than other financial flows, as shown in Figure 2.
Model Parameters:
- The model is calibrated using data on financial development, government size, and aid volatility.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that remittances significantly reduce macroeconomic volatility in African countries, primarily through the wealth effect on labor supply and reduction of financial frictions.
The stabilizing effect is more pronounced in countries with limited financial development.
Future research should focus on improving data quality to better capture the true impact of remittances.

Key Tables and Figures

Table 1: Summary statistics of business cycle fluctuations and remittances.
Table 2: Results of GLS estimation showing the negative correlation between remittances and output volatility.
Table 3: Results of risk-sharing analysis, showing the positive and significant impact of remittances on risk sharing.
Figure 1: Remittances and other financial flows in SSA.
Figure 2: Volatility of financial flows to Africa (Coefficient of variation).
Figure 3: Macroeconomic volatility and remittances in Africa.

References and Appendix

The paper references several studies on remittances and macroeconomic volatility.
An appendix provides additional details on the model and data sources.