2024-11-24-世界银行-埃塞俄比亚的绿色竞争力_环境和气候因素如何在选定的价值链中日益塑造埃塞俄比亚的经济前景概述（英）_108页_3mb

Executive Summary

Ethiopia's economy is highly vulnerable to climate change, with potential cumulative economic losses rising significantly by 2030–40. A growing focus on sustainability is reshaping market access conditions. Four key sectors—textiles and garments, coffee, cut flowers, and aviation—face distinct challenges from climate change and evolving regulations. These trends intersect with Ethiopia's severe macroeconomic challenges, including foreign exchange shortages and policy gaps. Green competitiveness demands coordinated action on regulations, data-driven decision-making, and enhanced capabilities in environmental standards.

Introduction

Ethiopia’s competitiveness is increasingly influenced by sustainability imperatives. Climate change impacts are uneven, with agriculture, hydropower, and key export sectors facing risks. With more than 50% of exports directed toward high-income markets, Ethiopia is exposed to sustainability regulations such as the EU Deforestation Regulation and product-level environmental standards. Four sectors (textiles and garments, coffee, cut flowers, and aviation) were analyzed due to their economic significance and exposure to market shifts. This report identifies immediate compliance pressures and future adaptation needs, offering recommendations to build domestic capabilities and strengthen coordination.

Supply-Side Impacts

• Climate Change causes direct impacts (e.g., droughts, floods) and indirect ones (e.g., reduced hydropower, disrupted supply chains). Coffee, cotton production, and aviation are particularly vulnerable.
• Other Environmental Pressures include water scarcity, pollution from industrial processes, and land degradation in the case of failed irrigation and deforestation.

Demand-Side Changes

Sustainability requirements are evolving across global markets, with intense scrutiny on such issues as supply chain transparency and circularity. Increasingly stringent requirements from the European Union, California, and other jurisdictions are influencing market access. International buyers are demanding data-intensive sustainability reporting, including GHG emissions, land-use changes, and geolocation data.

Sectoral Analysis

Textiles and Garments

• Strengths: Competitive labor costs and green power access.
• Weaknesses: Limited value chain integration and sustainable cotton certification.
• Opportunities: Vertical integration and circular economy.
• Threats: African Growth and Opportunity Act suspension, EU Deforestation Regulation.

Coffee

• Strengths: Specialty coffee demand, green energy.
• Weaknesses: Traceability gaps, EUDR compliance.
• Opportunities: Premium markets, VSS adoption.
• Threats: Climate change, forced export restructuring.

Cut Flowers

• Strengths: High labor productivity, export potential.
• Weaknesses: Water-intensive production, unsustainable chemical use.
• Opportunities: Local partnerships, circular economy.
• Threats: Competitiveness pressure from neighboring producers.

Aviation

• Strengths: US$2 billion exports, alignment with decarbonization trends.
• Weaknesses: Airport infrastructure, dependency on fossil fuels.
• Opportunities: SAF production.
• Threats: CORSIA regulations, demand reduction.

Recommendations

Green Infrastructure and Governance (for Short to Medium Term)

• Establish a national green competitiveness coordination mechanism.
• Develop a robust digital framework for environmental, climate, and quality-related data.
• Enhance the quality infrastructure’s capacity to support green compliance.
• Catalog international sustainability frameworks and assess applicability to Ethiopian products.

Sustainable Value Chains (for Medium to Long Term)

• Deepen sectoral analysis to support green value chain integration.
• Prioritize circular economy, incorporating life cycle logistics.
• Assess demand shifts for sustainable fuels and materials.
• Accelerate adoption of zero-liquid discharge in parks for wastewater recycling.

Future Directions

Ethiopia requires ongoing sectoral technical assistance and continuous monitoring of evolving sustainability standards. The country must also foster public-private dialogue and capacity building to align with international sustainability frameworks.