战略与国际研究中心-The-Military-Balance-in-the-Gulf-and-the-Threat-from-Iraq_106页_487kb

Summary of "The Military Balance in the Gulf and the Threat from Iraq"

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the military balance in the Gulf region, focusing on Iraq's military capabilities, economic constraints, and demographic trends. It is authored by Anthony H. Cordesman, a senior fellow for strategic assessment, and was published in May 2000. The report serves as a supplement to his earlier work, Iraq and the War of Sanctions.

The analysis covers several key areas:

• The current state of military forces and equipment in the Gulf region.
• The impact of economic and demographic factors on military spending and capabilities.
• Trends in military expenditures and arms imports among Gulf states.
• The implications of lifting sanctions on Iraq's military recovery and rearmament.

Main Points

Part One: The Dynamics of the Regional Military Balance

• Military Demographics:

  • The document includes a detailed table of military demographics for various Gulf countries, including the number of males reaching military age and the distribution of military-age males across different age groups.
  • It highlights the differences in military manpower between countries, with Iran and Saudi Arabia having the largest numbers of active military personnel.

• Military Forces in 2000:

  • A comparison of military forces across the Gulf region is presented, including active and reserve forces, armored fighting vehicles, artillery, combat aircraft, and armed helicopters.
  • Key points:
    • Iran has the largest military forces in the region.
    • Iraq's military forces are significantly smaller than Iran's, but still substantial compared to other Gulf states.
    • Saudi Arabia and the UAE have significant military capabilities, including armored vehicles and combat aircraft.
    • The document notes that the military forces of Gulf countries include elements like the National Guard and Royal Guard, which contribute to their overall strength.

• Combat Equipment Strength:

  • A table provides an overview of the total number of fixed-wing combat aircraft, main battle tanks, and other military equipment.
  • The data emphasize that while Iraq had a large inventory of tanks and armored vehicles, its ability to maintain and modernize them was severely limited due to economic constraints and sanctions.

Part Two: The Impact of Economics and Demographics

• Iraq's Military Spending:

  • Iraq's military spending has been a significant burden on its economy, especially after the Gulf War.
  • The military expenditures as a percentage of GDP have been high, leading to a decline in living standards and economic stability.
  • The report highlights that Iraq's per capita military spending is much higher than its per capita GDP, indicating a preference for military over civilian spending.

• Military Expenditure Trends:

  • Military spending in Iraq peaked in the 1980s and declined significantly after 1991 due to UN sanctions.
  • The document compares Iraq's military spending with other Gulf states and notes that it is still lower than the spending of countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia.

• Arms Imports and Production:

  • Iraq has historically relied heavily on arms imports from countries like Russia, China, and Eastern Europe.
  • The document notes that the lack of arms imports since 1991 has led to a significant decline in the readiness and sustainability of Iraq's military forces.
  • Domestic production is limited and cannot fully replace the need for foreign arms imports.

Part Three: Military Expenditures

• Comparative Expenditures:
  • The report compares military expenditures of high-spending Gulf countries between 1983 and 1995.
  • It shows that Iraq's military expenditures were high relative to its GDP, contributing to economic hardship.
  • Other Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also invested heavily in military capabilities, but with a more balanced approach to economic development.

Part Four: Arms Imports and Military Production

• Arms Imports:

  • The cumulative arms imports of Gulf states from 1984 to 1996 are outlined.
  • Iraq's arms imports dropped significantly after the Gulf War, and the document discusses the implications of this decline on its military capabilities.
  • The report also notes that Iraq's military forces are composed largely of obsolete and outdated equipment.

• Military Production:

  • The problem of military production is addressed, with a focus on the limited capacity of Iraq to produce modern weapons.
  • The document lists major military production facilities in Iraq, indicating the country's ability to maintain and upgrade its military equipment is constrained.

Part Five: Impact of Lifting Sanctions and Economic Recovery

• Iraq's Economic Base:

  • The current economic situation of Iraq is described, including its GDP and military spending.
  • The report suggests that lifting sanctions may allow for some economic recovery, but the military burden remains a significant issue.

• Future Wealth and Military Restructuring:

  • The potential for Iraq's economic recovery and its impact on military restructuring is discussed.
  • The document outlines possible military scenarios, including the reconstitution of the Iraqi military and the potential for rearmament.

Part Six: Trends in Iraqi Conventional Land Forces

• Military Manpower and Equipment:
  • Trends in the total active military manpower and equipment strength of Iraqi land forces are analyzed.
  • The report notes a significant decline in the number of combat aircraft and armored vehicles since the Gulf War.
  • The impact of coalition forces on Iraqi equipment is discussed, highlighting the destruction of key military assets.

Part Seven: Trends in Iraqi Conventional Air Forces

• Combat Aircraft and Helicopters:
  • The report provides data on the number of combat aircraft and helicopters in Iraq and other Gulf states.
  • It notes that Iraq's air forces are heavily reliant on imported equipment and have limited modern capabilities.

Part Eight: Trends in Iraqi Conventional Naval Forces

• Naval Forces and Equipment:
  • The document outlines the composition of Iraqi naval forces, including surface combatants, patrol craft, and naval aircraft.
  • It highlights the limited number of modern naval assets and the reliance on older, less capable vessels.

Part Nine: Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction

• Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs):
  • The report discusses Iraq's WMD programs, including its chemical, biological, and ballistic missile capabilities.
  • It includes information on past uses of chemical weapons and the potential for future use.
  • The document also addresses the threat of terrorism and unconventional warfare by Iraq.

Key Information

• Military Manpower:

  • Iran and Saudi Arabia have the largest military forces in the Gulf region.
  • Iraq's military manpower is significantly lower than that of its neighbors, but still substantial.

• Combat Equipment:

  • Iraq has a large inventory of tanks and armored vehicles, but much of this equipment is outdated.
  • The number of combat aircraft and helicopters is lower, and the quality of these assets is limited.

• Economic Impact:

  • Iraq's military spending has been a major burden on its economy.
  • The lack of arms imports since 1991 has led to a significant decline in military readiness and capability.

• Sanctions and Recovery:

  • The lifting of sanctions could allow for some economic recovery, but the military burden remains a critical issue.
  • Iraq's military is highly dependent on foreign suppliers, and domestic production cannot fully replace this need.

• WMD Programs:

  • Iraq has a history of chemical warfare and has maintained a ballistic missile program.
  • The document outlines the potential threat of WMDs and unconventional warfare.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that while Iraq has a large military order of battle, its ability to sustain and modernize this force is severely limited due to economic constraints and the effects of sanctions. The military balance in the Gulf region is characterized by the significant military capabilities of Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Iraq being a major threat due to its WMD programs and the potential for unconventional warfare. The lifting of sanctions may provide some economic relief, but it is unlikely to restore Iraq's military capabilities to their pre-war levels.