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Pakistan: Shrinking Control Summary

Core Content

The document "Pakistan: Shrinking Control" by Teresita C. Schaffer, Director of the South Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), analyzes the political and governance challenges facing Pakistan, particularly focusing on President Pervez Musharraf's position and the escalating tensions in the country. It highlights the growing instability and the potential for major political changes in the near future.

Main Points

• Political Instability and Governance Crisis: The article suggests that Pakistan is on the brink of significant changes in governance and political structure. Musharraf faces his most intense domestic challenge yet, with the potential for a shift toward more democratic governance or further autocratic control.

• Key Events:

  • March 9: Musharraf suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, an event that has become symbolic of the political crisis.
  • May 12: Chaudhry's attempt to visit Karachi was blocked, leading to widespread riots involving the MQM, opposition parties, and the local bar council. The violence, broadcast live on television, resulted in at least 38 deaths and highlighted the government's failure to maintain order.

• Impact of the Riots:

  • The riots damaged Musharraf's reputation as a leader.
  • They revealed the government's inability to control unrest and cast doubt on the effectiveness of the military.
  • The MQM, known for its thuggish reputation, played a central role in the violence, adding an ethnic dimension due to Musharraf's own muhajir background.

• Musharraf's Political Dilemma:

  • Musharraf's options are limited and fraught with risks.
  • He is trying to maintain control by blaming the media and claiming confidence in his political allies.
  • A potential deal with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) led by Benazir Bhutto is unlikely, and religious parties are distancing themselves from him.

• Democracy Option:

  • A "democracy option" is presented as a possible path for Musharraf to restore his popularity.
  • This would involve staging transparent elections, leaving the army, and running as a civilian candidate.
  • However, this option is considered a paradoxical reversal of his usual approach and may not be credible given his actions and the judicial crisis.

• International Implications:

  • The U.S. and other international actors must consider Pakistan's long-term stability rather than just short-term working relationships with Musharraf.
  • The article underscores the need for preparedness for alternative political scenarios in Pakistan.

Key Information

• Musharraf's Position:

  • Despite still being in power, Musharraf is losing support and influence.
  • His leadership is now more vulnerable to domestic challenges and less effective in supporting the anti-terrorism agenda.

• MQM's Role:

  • The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) is a major political player with a history of violent tactics.
  • Its involvement in the riots highlights the complex ethnic and political dynamics in Pakistan.

• Judicial Crisis:

  • The Supreme Court is handling a case that challenges the validity of Musharraf's suspension of the Chief Justice.
  • The court's decision will have significant public and political repercussions.

• Public Reaction:

  • The riots and the judicial crisis have mobilized public opinion against Musharraf.
  • The opposition is becoming more active and less passive, signaling a potential shift in the political landscape.

Conclusion

Musharraf's political standing is under threat as the situation in Pakistan continues to deteriorate. His options are limited, and the path toward a more democratic system, while risky, may offer the best chance for him to regain public support. The international community, particularly the United States, must be prepared for the possibility of a political transition and focus on long-term stability rather than short-term alliances. The events of May 12 mark a turning point in Pakistan's political history, with significant implications for governance, security, and the country's future direction.