2025-06-16-花旗集团-全球金属与采矿业_2025年5月中国房地产下滑速率进一步降低_增量下滑对金属需求影响较小_9页_276kb

China Property Market Update
Report Date: 16 June 2025 | 10:04:32 ET

Key Indicators in May 2025

• Floor Space Sales: -3.3% (y/y)
• Floor Space Starts: -19.3% (y/y)
• Completions: -19.5% (y/y)

Historical Data Comparison

May 2025 figures show a narrowing gap in the pace of decline compared to 2024:

• 5M 2024: Sales -3% (y/y), Starts -23% (y/y)
• 2024 Full Year: Sales -13% (y/y), Starts -24% (y/y)

Insights

• Destocking Continues: Sales have been higher than starts, indicating ongoing inventory reduction initiated over four years ago, reducing sensitivity to property demand on the steel sector.
• Steel Demand Impact: Property now contributes less than 20% of domestic steel demand, mitigating the incremental effect of declining starts.

Future Projections

• Citi House Forecast:
  • Sales: -8% (y/y)
  • Starts: -16% (y/y)
  • These levels align with historical data points corresponding to 2008 sales and 2004 starts.

Additional details may be referenced in the full research report.