2025-01-19-国际清算银行-商品价格和货币政策_新旧挑战（英）_8页_335kb

BIS Bulletin No 96: Commodity Prices and Monetary Policy – Old and New Challenges

Core Content

This BIS Bulletin explores the evolving relationship between commodity price fluctuations and monetary policy, focusing on the economic and inflationary impacts of energy and food price shocks, and the implications for central banks in managing inflation in a changing global landscape.

Main Points

• 2021–22 Inflation Surge: Major increases in energy and food prices were key drivers of the inflation spike in 2021–22. These were largely supply-driven and occurred during a period of already elevated inflation in many countries.
• Commodity Price Volatility: Energy and food prices reached their highest levels in a decade, with natural gas prices in Europe spiking over tenfold in a short period, surpassing even the 1970s oil shocks.
• Macroeconomic Effects: The economic impact of commodity price shifts varies depending on whether they are demand-driven or supply-driven. Supply shocks tend to result in stagflation, with lower output and higher inflation, while demand shocks raise both inflation and output.
• Structural Factors: The impact of commodity price changes is influenced by the role of commodities in production and consumption, the structure of the economy (exporter vs importer), and the inflationary expectations anchored by monetary policy credibility.
• Monetary Policy Responses: Central banks have historically "looked through" commodity price fluctuations, especially when they are transitory. However, the 2021–22 shocks were large enough to challenge this approach, as they had significant and lasting inflationary effects.
• Taylor Rule Analysis: The study estimates Taylor rules to assess how central banks respond to different components of inflation. It finds that advanced economies (AEs) have largely ignored energy and food price changes, while emerging market economies (EMEs) have responded more strongly, likely due to less stable inflation regimes.
• Future Challenges: Geopolitical tensions, climate change, and the transition to green energy are expected to make commodity price shifts more frequent, larger, and more persistent. This could increase the risk of high-inflation regimes and make monetary policy more difficult to implement.
• Less Elastic Supply: A more fragmented global supply chain and reduced energy efficiency could limit the ability of central banks to "look through" price shocks, increasing the risk of inflationary pressures and making disinflation more costly.

Key Information

• Commodity Price Shifts: Energy and food prices surged in 2021–22, with natural gas prices in Europe rising more than tenfold.
• Supply-Driven Shocks: These shocks have disproportionate and longer-lasting effects on inflation and output, especially in economies where commodities are central to production or consumption.
• Monetary Policy Frameworks: Stronger monetary policy frameworks, with greater central bank autonomy and clear mandates for price stability, have reduced the risk of second-round effects.
• Inflation Expectations: The credibility of monetary policy and the anchoring of inflation expectations are critical in mitigating the impact of commodity price shifts.
• Global Supply Trends: Reduced globalization and increased supply inelasticity are expected to heighten the impact of commodity price changes and make monetary policy more challenging.
• Policy Implications: Central banks must be cautious in their approach to commodity price shocks. Adjustments like raising inflation targets or tolerating higher price surges could undermine credibility and trust in monetary policy.

Conclusion

The Bulletin highlights that while commodity price shocks have traditionally been "looked through" by central banks, the recent and future increases in their magnitude and persistence pose new challenges. The interplay between supply-side disruptions, climate change, and geopolitical tensions could make these shocks more disruptive and harder to manage, requiring a more nuanced and vigilant monetary policy response.