20141114-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_39页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 14 November 2014

Core Content Overview

This document is a summary of regional market insights for the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on China, Indonesia, and Malaysia, with a detailed analysis of Pioneer Pharma, Garuda Indonesia, and Maxis. It also includes key indices, top picks, corporate events, and financial metrics for these companies.

Key Stories

China: Pioneer Pharma (1345 HK)

Initiate Coverage: The company is a leading marketing, promotion, and channel management service provider in China for pharmaceutical and medical device imports.
Earnings Growth: Pioneer Pharma has delivered robust earnings growth and is expected to achieve a 29% CAGR in net profit from 2014 to 2016.
Market Position: Holds a 10.1% market share, becoming the second-largest marketing service provider in China.
Strategic Initiatives: Expanding product portfolio and distribution network, with a focus on higher-margin services. The company has secured long-term contracts with major suppliers like Alcon and is expected to become an exclusive distributor of Neoton by the end of 2014.
Valuation: Trading at 19x 2015F PE, which is considered attractive compared to peers like CMS.
Target Price: HK$9.80, with an upside of +28.3%.
Stock Impact: Strong revenue growth from co-promotion and channel management services, and expansion of the sales and promotion network.

Indonesia: Garuda Indonesia (GIAA IJ)

Direct Beneficiary of Lower Oil Prices: The airline is expected to benefit from the decline in oil prices, which reduces fuel costs.
Performance: In 3Q14, RPK increased by 7% qoq, and the seat load factor improved to 75% (domestic) and 70% (international). This contributed to better financial performance.
Cost Structure: Fuel costs account for 38% of total operating expenses, with 20% hedged. The company has a currency mismatch, with 55% of revenue in rupiah and 70% of costs in USD.
Government Policies: Expected to introduce higher tariffs for domestic flights and remove fuel surcharges, which may not significantly impact revenue.
Infrastructure Bottlenecks: Overcapacity at airports has led to inefficiencies, increasing operational costs. Management expects infrastructure improvements in the near future.
Valuation: Trading at 5.6x 2015F EV/EBITDA, compared to 7.5x for regional peers.
Capacity and Traffic: Plans to expand fleet to 188 by next year, with 12% more efficient new aircraft.
Risk Factors: Oil price volatility, competition, and regulatory changes.

Malaysia: Maxis (MAXIS MK)

9M14 Results: Core net profit fell 9% yoy due to network modernisation. Expect intensifying competition in 4Q14.
Target Price: RM6.40, with a current price of RM6.90.
Recommendation: HOLD, as the weak quarter is expected to continue due to competition.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17652.8	0.2	0.6	8.2	6.5
S&P 500	2039.3	0.1	0.4	8.8	10.3
FTSE 100	6635.5	0.4	1.3	4.2	-1.7
AS30	5423.5	-0.4	-1.0	4.2	1.3
CSI 300	2579.8	-0.6	2.9	5.4	10.7
FSSTI	3304.9	0.6	0.4	3.5	4.3
HSCEI	10800.9	0.7	2.2	5.3	-0.1
HSI	24019.9	0.3	1.6	4.2	3.1
JCI	5048.7	0.0	0.3	2.6	18.1
KLCI	1815.8	0.0	-0.9	1.1	-2.7
KOSPI	1960.5	-0.3	1.2	1.6	-2.5
Nikkei 225	17392.8	1.1	3.6	16.4	6.8
SET	1577.2	1.0	-0.2	2.0	21.4
TWSE	8980.7	0.7	1.0	2.4	4.3
BDI	1264	-4.7	-12.0	32.5	-44.5
CPO (RM/mt)	2256	1.7	-0.2	3.2	-12.3
Nymex Crude	74	-3.8	-4.7	-13.4	-24.6

Top Picks

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Potential Upside
Sunac China	1918 HK	HK$6.95	HK$9.29	33.7%
ICBC	1398 HK	HK$5.11	HK$6.15	20.4%
Bank Mandiri	BMRI LJ	10,425.00	12,500.00	19.9%
Gamuda	GAM MK	RM5.15	RM5.50	6.8%
DBS	DBS SP	S$19.50	S$22.68	16.3%
Pacific Radiance	PACRA SP	S$0.995	S$1.57	76.9%
Bangkok Bank	BBL TB	Bt198.50	Bt276.00	39.0%
Advanced Info	ADVANC	RM239.00	RM270.00	13.0%

Sell: UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK) - Current Price: RM11.10, Target: RM10.00, Potential Downside: 9.9%

Key Financials and Metrics - Pioneer Pharma

Metric	2012	2013	2014F	2015F	2016F
Net turnover (Rmbm)	959	1,272	1,607	2,006	2,490
EBITDA (Rmbm)	218	292	355	473	603
Operating profit (Rmbm)	216	290	353	468	596
Net profit (Rmbm)	186	238	309	407	513
EPS (Fen)	19.0	22.8	23.2	30.5	38.5
PE (x)	31.8	26.5	26.0	19.6	15.7
P/B (x)	28.0	5.5	6.6	5.1	4.1
EV/EBITDA (x)	36.7	27.4	22.5	16.9	13.3
Net margin (%)	19.4	18.7	19.2	20.3	20.6
ROE (%)	92.2	34.8	26.1	29.3	32.3

Key Financials and Metrics - Garuda Indonesia

Metric	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Net turnover (US$m)	1,730	2,151	3,096	3,472	3,716
EBITDA (US$m)	230	174	226	301	161
Operating profit (US$m)	74	(7)	92	171	6
Net profit (rep./act.)	87	32	64	111	11
EPS (Rp)	N/A	38	35	59	6
PE (x)	N/A	12.7	13.6	8.0	80.4
EV/EBITDA (x)	7.7	10.2	7.9	5.9	11.0
ROE (%)	44.5	15.5	9.8	10.9	1.0

Corporate Events

China Healthcare Sector Analyst Presentation: Hong Kong, 17–18 Nov
GC 1H15 Market Strategy, CH Infrastructure Sector:
- London, 17 Nov
- Milan & Zurich, 18–19 Nov
- Vienna, 20 Nov
- London, 21–25 Nov
- Dublin, 26 Nov
Regional 1H15 Strategy Forum: Kuala Lumpur, 3 Dec

Conclusion

The report highlights the strong performance and growth potential of Pioneer Pharma in China, driven by its robust earnings growth and strategic relationships with key suppliers. Garuda Indonesia is expected to benefit from falling oil prices and is working on fleet expansion and network improvements to enhance its market position. Maxis in Malaysia experienced a decline in core net profit due to network modernisation and is expected to face increased competition. Key indices show mixed performance across the region, with some markets outperforming others. Overall, the report provides a detailed analysis of the companies' financial health, valuation, and market dynamics.

展开完整摘要