战略与国际研究中心-Select-Briefing-Vol-1,-No-8_2页_129kb

Central European Update Summary

Poland

• Euro-zone Entry: Poland could potentially join the Euro-zone in 2007 if it meets the Maastricht criteria, including a budget deficit below 3% of GDP and public debt under 55% of GDP.
• ERM2 Preparation: The country should prepare for the fiscal measures of the Exchange Rate Mechanism 2 (ERM2), which is a prerequisite for joining the Euro-zone.
• Monetary Policy: The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) raised interest rates by 0.25% to combat inflation, indicating proactive fiscal management.
• Political Appointments: Prime Minister Marek Belka appointed Andrzej Ananicz as the head of the Polish Intelligence Agency, which sparked controversy due to concerns about political influence.

Czech Republic

• Government Criticism: President Vaclav Klaus criticized the coalition agreement of the new government, calling it vague and lacking clarity on policy priorities.
• Policy Agenda: The new government plans to create 100,000 jobs over two years, primarily in regions with high unemployment like Moravia, Silesia, and Northwest Bohemia.
• Economic Goals: The agenda includes pension reform, social programs, and reducing the public deficit to below 4% of GDP by 2006.
• Policy Presentation: The final version of the policy agenda will be presented to the Chamber of Deputies on 24 August.

Slovakia

• Military Deployment: 96 Slovak troops returned from Iraq, and a new contingent led by Lt. Col. Anton Sladecek arrived to take over mine-clearing activities.
• Security Stance: The Slovak Foreign Ministry reaffirmed its stance against yielding to terrorist demands, emphasizing the commitment to keep troops in Iraq despite hostage crises.

Hungary

• Military Cooperation: Hungary and the UK signed an agreement on cost-sharing for joint military exercises, marking the first bilateral military cooperation protocol in Hungary.
• Exercise Details: The agreement precedes the British-Hungarian-Swedish air battle exercise near Kecskemet.
• Regional Discussions: Hungarian and Romanian officials discussed weapons acquisitions and upgrades in Bucharest.

Baltic States Update

Lithuania

• Inflation Control: Lithuania reported a 1.9% inflation rate for July, with strong GDP growth of 7.7% and 6.9% in the first and second quarters of the year.
• Diplomatic Tensions: Russia expelled Lithuania's military attaché, Sigitas Butkus, as part of an ongoing diplomatic dispute, following similar expulsions in 2004.

Latvia

• National Security Law: Amendments to the national security law allow Latvia to request up to a 100-strong foreign military contingent for up to six months in case of domestic emergencies.

Estonia

• Political Realignment: Eight Social Liberals (SL) members left the Center Party due to disagreements with the leadership.
• Political Leverage: The group is being courted by Res Publica and the Reform Party to increase their political influence ahead of the budget debate.
• Decision Deadline: The group will meet on 18 August to evaluate the proposals.

Southeast European Update

Slovenia

• Syndicated Loan: NLB, Slovenia's largest bank, secured a 400 million Euro syndicated loan from 34 banks across 12 countries, including the US, Canada, and Japan.
• Loan Purpose: The funds will be used for domestic enterprises and infrastructure projects over a five-year period.
• EU and IMF Engagement: The loan was facilitated by Slovenia's EU membership and improved credit rating from Standard&Poor.
• EU Role: Slovenian President Janez Drnovsek and European Commissioner Jacques Barrot discussed Slovenia's role in EU-led reforms and foreign direct investment in the Western Balkans.

Croatia

• Economic Program: Croatia's government released a 2004-2005 economic program aiming to reduce government involvement, boost the private sector, and stabilize external debt.
• Economic Targets: The plan seeks GDP growth of around 3.5%, a current account deficit of about 5%, and an inflation rate of 2-3% annually.
• IMF Support: The IMF approved a 25-month Stand-by Arrangement worth USD141.3 million for Croatia.

Bulgaria

• IMF Stand-by Arrangement: Bulgaria received a 25-month Stand-by Arrangement of USD146 million, conditional on using IMF resources only in case of economic deterioration.
• Military Exercise: Bulgaria held its first joint military exercise with the US since joining NATO, named "Bulwark 04."
• Hostage Crisis: The Bulgarian Foreign Ministry confirmed that a body found in Iraq was that of Ivailo Kepov, a Bulgarian truck driver kidnapped and executed by militants.

Euro Quiz Summary

• Questions: The quiz includes multiple-choice questions on key EU topics.
• Sample Questions:
  1. Who was the first President of the European Central Bank? B. Wim Duisenberg
  2. How many members may the European Parliament have under the Treaty of Nice? C. 732
  3. The US and EU together account for more than B. 45.75% of world trade.
  4. The country not eligible for the 2003/2004 accession was D. Estonia.
  5. The Transatlantic Consumer Dialogue (TACD) is a B. consumer forum.
  6. The European Central Bank is located in B. Frankfurt.
  7. ERM2 stands for A. an exchange rate mechanism.

About the Briefing

• Producer: The Select Briefing is produced by the Eastern Europe Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
• Nonpartisan Focus: CSIS does not take specific policy positions and focuses on monitoring developments in Eastern, Central, and Southeast Europe.
• Team: The briefing team includes Janusz Bugajski (Director), Ilona Teleki (Fellow), Milena Staneva (Research Assistant and editor), and others.