战略与国际研究中心-Select-Briefing-Vol-1,-No-3_2页_140kb

Central European Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This summary outlines recent developments in Central and Southeast European countries, focusing on economic reforms, political changes, and international relations. It highlights the progress and challenges faced by these nations in their integration into the European Union and their engagement with global issues such as terrorism and regional cooperation.

Poland

• Economic Outlook: The OECD Economic Survey notes that Poland's economy is projected to grow by 4.7% in 2004 and 4.5% in 2005.
• Unemployment and Income: Despite growth, unemployment remains high at around 19%, and per capita income is only 41% of OECD levels.
• Reforms Needed: The government is advised to improve investor conditions and promote rural development.
• Outsourcing Appeal: AT Kearney ranks Poland among the top 10 destinations for offshore outsourcing due to its skilled and cost-effective workforce.

The Czech Republic

• Government Formation: Following the resignation of Prime Minister Vladimir Spidla, President Václav Klaus asked Interior Minister Stanislav Gross to form a new government. Gross has 60 days to secure a 101-vote majority.
• Political Dynamics: The Freedom Union's deputy Marian Bielesz resigned, allowing a loyal member to fill the vacant seat and help Gross achieve the required majority.
• Budget Deficit: The Czech Republic, along with five other new EU members, must reduce budget deficits to below 3% of GDP by 2008.
• Political Opposition: The Civic Democrats (ODS) are pushing for early elections and are not supporting a three-party coalition government.

Slovakia

• Investment Contracts: The Slovak Parliament requested the release of contracts signed with Hyundai/Kia and PSA Peugeot Citroen due to concerns about transparency and excessive incentives.
• Confidentiality: Experts from the justice and economy ministries will determine which parts of the contracts remain confidential.

Hungary

• Border Opening: Prime Minister Péter Medgyessy and Romanian Prime Minister Adrian Nastase inaugurated a new border crossing near Debrecen, reducing travel distance by 100 km.
• EU Summit in Budapest: The European People's Party (EPP) held its Group Study Days in Budapest, with Viktor Orban emphasizing the need for a long-term relationship with the USA and addressing internal EU disparities.
• EPP Strategy: The EPP is supporting the election of José Manuel Barroso as the next European Commission president.

Baltic States Update

Lithuania

• Iraq Relations: Lithuanian officials are considering establishing diplomatic relations with Iraq, potentially becoming one of the first countries to do so after the Coalition handed over power.
• Foreign Minister Visit: Sarunas Adomavicius and Defense Minister Linas Linkevicius met with Iraqi Defense Minister Hazem Shaalan to discuss this possibility.

Latvia

• Legal Reversal: The European Court of Human Rights lifted a 10-year ban on Tatjana Zdanoka, a former communist, from participating in politics due to rights violations.
• Government Response: The Latvian government has announced it will appeal the ruling.
• Political Context: Zdanoka, who has support in the Russian-speaking community, is now a member of the European Parliament.

Southeast European Update

Slovenia

• Foreign Minister Resignation: Dimitrij Rupel was dismissed from his position as Foreign Minister following allegations of undermining Prime Minister Anton Rop's political agenda.
• New Foreign Minister: Ivo Vajgl, Slovenia's ambassador to Germany, will replace Rupel.

Croatia

• Media Stability: Croatia was closer to achieving "independent media stability" than any other Southeast European state in 2003, according to the Media Sustainability Index (MSI).
• Judicial Reform: The OSCE has identified judicial reform as Croatia's remaining weakness, though progress is noted.
• EU Accession: Croatia has completed 25 of 31 chapters of the acquis communautaire and aims to conclude negotiations by October 2004 to sign an accession treaty by 2005.

Bulgaria

• Kidnapping Incident: Two Bulgarian civilians were kidnapped in Iraq and shown on Al Jazeera, with a threat to execute them if the Coalition did not release militants.
• Government Response: Bulgarian Foreign Minister Solomon Passy reaffirmed the country's stance against terrorist demands and engaged in high-level talks with U.S., Russian, and Iraqi officials.
• Humanitarian Aid: Bulgaria has provided humanitarian aid to Afghanistan and is considering further support for Iraq, including surplus military equipment.

Romania

• EU Accession Progress: Romania has completed 37 measures of its Plan of Priority Actions and aims to finalize negotiations by October 2004.
• Political Concerns: Four NGOs argue that Romania has not met EU political criteria, citing "façade democracy" and the use of executive ordinances.
• Stock Market Growth: The Romanian stock exchange (BVB) saw growth due to the performance of two blue-chip banks.
• Economic Trends: Net real wages increased by 8.6% between January and May 2004, raising concerns about inflation and trade deficits.

Other Developments

NATO

• ISAF Expansion: NATO took command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in northern Afghanistan, including Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) in Mazar-e-Sharif and Maimana.

EU-Ukraine Summit

• Summit Location: Held in The Hague on 7 July.
• No Agreement: The EU and Ukraine could not agree on an Action Plan for democratic and economic reforms.
• Market Economy Status: The EU refused to grant Ukraine market economy status due to insufficient reforms.
• Neighborhood Policy: A joint Action Plan was finalized under the European Neighborhood Policy to strengthen EU-Ukraine relations.

About the Briefing

• Producer: Select Briefing is produced by the Eastern Europe Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
• Nonpartisan Focus: The research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary, monitoring daily developments in East, Central, and Southeast Europe.
• Target Countries: The briefing covers new EU member states and those scheduled for enlargement.