IMF-中部非洲经济和货币共同体_支持成员国改革方案的共同政策工作人员报告；执行主任的发言（英）-2025_64页_1mb

报告摘要

IMF Country Report No. 25/171: CEMAC Common Policies Support Member Countries Reform Programs - Summary

Executive Summary

Economic Context: The CEMAC region showed modest economic gains in 2024, but fiscal slippages and external imbalances persist. GDP growth reached 3.3% in 2024, but inflation remains above the regional convergence criterion at 4.1%. The external position deteriorated due to lower oil prices, leading to a reserve coverage of 4.3 months of imports—below the adequate level.
Outlook & Risks: The medium-term outlook faces significant risks, including fiscal slippages, tightening global financing conditions, potential sovereign debt distress, climate events, and political uncertainty (post-election periods from 2025-2026).
Policy Recommendations: Key policy areas include strengthening fiscal consolidation, enforcing foreign exchange regulations, addressing the "sovereign-bank nexus," modernizing banking supervision, and improving regional surveillance mechanisms.

Key Findings & Risks

Fiscal Position: Preliminary data shows fiscal slippages worsening the deficit (CEMAC overall shifted from surplus to 1.5% deficit in 2024). Fiscal buffers are depleted, and reforms are slow.
Inflation: Inflation declined to 4.1% in 2024 but remains uncertain for sustained downward movement.
External Position: Worsening is projected over the medium term if no corrective action; reserve coverage could fall to 3.1 months by 2030 under no adjustment scenario without policy changes.
External Market Pressures: High repayments, low subscription rates, high yields, arrears, and recent debt reprofiling operations by Congo & Gabon strain the regional debt market.

Policy Discussions & Staff Recommendations

Fiscal Policy: Demand urgent fiscal consolidation, enhance revenue collection (including tax reforms), improve expenditure efficiency, manage public debt better, and implement medium-term debt strategies.
Monetary Policy: Staff advises maintaining a data-dependent stance, refraining from lowering the policy rate prematurely. Continues liquidity injections to ease bank pressures but stresses vigilance on price stability and external risks.
Structural Reforms: Urges actions to build incentives for private investment, combat corruption, strengthen institutions (especially COBAC and BEAC), and develop financial markets (secondary bond market, banking legislation).
Surveillance & FX: Strengthen regional monitoring, enforce FX regulations strictly, including RES fund repatriation and combating non-compliance.

Regional Developments & Authorities' Views

Recent Performance: NFA rebounded partly due to Chad/Gabon disbursements and higher FX surrender. Governance reforms and Fortifications have been pledged.
Commitments: CEMAC Heads reaffirmed coordinated strategies for fiscal sustainability, FX enforcement, BEAC/COBAC independence, and diversification.
IMF Support: HEAs support ongoing IMF programs; further discussions are pending for Chad and other countries.

Data Quality & NFA Targets

NFA Target: Revised target to EUR 5.5 billion EUR for end-June 2025 (previously EUR 4.5 billion). Requires strong policy implementation.
Data: Institutional commitments received for better data sharing (IMF, World Bank).

Summary Tables Insights

Fiscal Indicators (Table 3a/b): Worsening deficits, high arrears, low non-oil fiscal balance.
External Balances (Table 4): Current account deficit widened.
Monetary Indicators (Table 5): Increased liquidity injections needed, banking vulnerabilities remain high.
Convergence (Table 6): Multiple countries violate convergence criteria related to fiscal deficits, inflation, and arrears.

This summary provides a concise overview highlighting the key economic challenges, risks, policy advice, and data insights contained in the IMF Country Report for the CEMAC region.

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