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MSA Employment Tracker Summary

Core Content

The MSA Employment Tracker report provides an analysis of office-using job growth and job listings in various markets across the United States. The data highlights the regional differences in employment trends and their implications for real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the office and apartment sectors.

Key Findings

Office-Using Job Growth

• National Y/Y Growth: Office-using job growth increased by +0.2% in April, exceeding the prior 3-month average of 0.0%.
• Regional Performance:
  • New York: +0.6% Y/Y, the strongest performer.
  • Sunbelt: +0.3% Y/Y, showing positive growth.
  • West Coast: -0.8% Y/Y, continued to lag, but increased by +80 bps M/M.
• Sector Performance:
  • Financial Activities: Increased by +20 bps to +1.2% Y/Y, marking its 11th consecutive monthly gain.
  • Tech Jobs: Declined by -20 bps M/M to 0.0% Y/Y.
• Market Standouts:
  • Charlotte: +2.9% Y/Y.
  • Raleigh: +2.2% Y/Y.
  • Orlando: +1.2% Y/Y.
• Negative Growth Markets:
  • Los Angeles: -1.1% Y/Y.
  • San Francisco: -1.4% Y/Y.
  • Silicon Valley: -1.5% Y/Y.
  • San Diego: -1.7% Y/Y.

Job Listings

• National Decline: Job listings in 28 tracked markets declined by -5.4% M/M to 79.1K.
• Y/Y Growth: Still positive at +1.4%, down from +6.4% in March.
• Market Performance:
  • Charlotte: +19.3% Y/Y.
  • New York: +16.4% Y/Y.
  • Miami: +12.1% Y/Y.
  • San Diego: -16.8% Y/Y.
  • Washington DC: -16.1% Y/Y.
• Regional Performance:
  • New York: +16.4% Y/Y, outperforming the Sunbelt (+0.6%) and West Coast (-3.2%).
• Momentum:
  • The 3-month average Y/Y growth in job listings declined by -950 bps compared to the prior 3-month average.
  • Strong momentum observed in Charlotte (-19.3%), San Francisco (-18.5%), and San Diego (-14.7%).

Notable Sectors

• FIRE (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate): Job listings increased by +15.2% Y/Y, with a notable +31.7% in New York City, leading the city's office leasing recovery.

Implications for Real Estate

• Apartment Supply vs. Demand:
  • Apartment supply still exceeds demand in most US markets.
  • Sunbelt Markets (e.g., Austin, Phoenix, Dallas) face significant supply pressure with low D/S ratios.
  • Coastal Markets show better performance with improved job listings and office-using job growth.
• Office Demand vs. Utilization:
  • Job growth and demand growth have been decoupling for several years due to the rise of remote and hybrid work.
  • The West Coast's lagging growth is a cautionary signal, especially with lower office utilization.
  • New York and Sunbelt Markets show better growth, supporting the preference for CUZ, HIW & BXP over peers.

REIT Performance

Apartment REITs

Office REITs

Why It Matters

• Local Job Growth: Analyzing job growth at the local level and by industry is a useful framework for understanding demand drivers for REITs.
• Leading Indicator: Job growth serves as a leading indicator for quarterly results, particularly for Office and Apartment REITs.
• Market and Sector Trends: The report emphasizes the importance of tracking both market-level and subsector-level data to make informed investment decisions.

Summary

The report highlights a mixed picture of office-using job growth and job listings in the US. While the national Y/Y growth ticked up slightly, regional performance varied significantly. New York and the Sunbelt showed positive growth, while the West Coast lagged. Financial Activities emerged as the fastest-growing sector, whereas Tech job growth declined. The data also underscores the importance of local market analysis for REITs, particularly in the office and apartment sectors, with a focus on momentum and demand-supply ratios.