20180115-穆迪服务-Credit_Implications_o_Current_Events_24页_930kb

报告摘要

Credit Outlook Summary - 15 January 2018

Core Content

This summary outlines the credit implications of various current events across different sectors, including Corporates, Infrastructure, Banks, Insurers, and Sovereigns. The analysis is provided by Moody's Investors Service, highlighting credit positives and negatives based on financial performance, strategic moves, and regulatory changes.

Main Points

Corporates

HP Inc. (Baa2 stable):
- Retained the leading position in global PC sales with a 23.5% market share in Q4 2017.
- Experienced mid-single-digit decline in the US PC market, but maintained growth in units.
- Expected to grow PC revenue for the 7th consecutive quarter, with a 5%-10% increase due to higher-margin notebooks and commercial business.
- Operating margins are projected to remain in the 3%-4% range.
- Moody's expects continued share gains and a focus on improving profitability through product mix and supply chain efficiency.

Sears Holdings Corporation (Caa3 negative)

Announced plans to raise additional financing and negotiate better debt terms, potentially leading to a distressed exchange.
Comparable store sales declined by 16%-17% during the holiday season, significantly underperforming competitors.
Continued negative operating cash flow, estimated at over $1.8 billion for the year.
Implemented measures to avoid covenant triggers, including increased inventory advance rate and deferral of collateral coverage test.
Moody's views the situation as credit negative, expecting continued losses and a need for comprehensive refinancing to avoid bankruptcy.

The Navigator Company (Ba2 stable)

Sold its pellets business for $135 million, freeing up capital for pulp and tissue operations.
The pellets business had not yet reached breakeven and was margin dilutive.
The sale is credit positive as it allows reinvestment in more profitable areas.
Plans to invest €380 million in 2017-19, including expansions in tissue and pulp, and forest plantation in Mozambique.
Expected to maintain net leverage below 2.0x and focus on strengthening pulp and tissue operations.

Infrastructure

Connecticut Light and Power Company (CL&P, Baa1 stable)

Reached a settlement with regulators and consumer counsel on its rate case.
Phased-in revenue increase of $154.5 million, with $97.1 million effective on 1 May 2018.
ROE of 9.25% and equity ratio of 53%, both above previous rate-case terms.
Credit positive due to the revenue decoupling mechanism and capital recovery tracker.
Expected to maintain stable financial metrics, with a cash flow to debt ratio in the 20% range over the next few years.

Banks

Argentina

New regulation allows banks to issue inflation-adjusted securitization vehicles, a credit positive.
Helps address maturity and currency mismatch in funding long-term inflation-adjusted mortgages.
Inflation-linked mortgages account for 45% of total outstanding mortgages and 90% of new loans.
Banks still face challenges due to lack of historical experience and legal term limitations for trusts (max 30 years).

Uzbekistan

New decree removes conflicts of interest in the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) by transferring ownership of Xalq Bank and Mikrokredit Bank to the Ministry of Finance.
CBU will focus on strengthening supervisory functions aligned with global principles.
Previously, CBU had regulatory leniency towards government-controlled banks, which may now be phased out.
Government-controlled banks had higher loan growth but lower capital growth, leading to capital adequacy issues.

Union Bank of Nigeria plc (B2 stable, b3²)

Raised NGN49.7 billion (about $162.5 million) in Tier 1 capital through a rights issue.
Credit positive as it restores capital buffers and supports digital growth and retail expansion.
Tier 1 capital ratio is expected to rise to 17.20%, above the required minimum of 11.25%.
High exposure to foreign-currency loans and oil and gas industry, contributing to higher asset risks.
Capital inflows in Nigeria are expected to gradually improve due to economic recovery and a more liberalized foreign exchange market.

Insurers

Molina Healthcare, Inc. (B2 negative)

Lost the New Mexico Medicaid contract, which served 225,000 members and generated $893 million in revenue.
The loss is a credit negative due to reduced membership and revenue, although the contract was unprofitable.
Moody's downgraded the company's financial strength and senior debt rating in August 2017.
The expiration of the contract in 2018 will free up $110 million in capital, improving the risk-based capital ratio by 7%.
The loss highlights the importance of upcoming renewals and the risks associated with large Medicaid contracts.

Taiwan

Increased foreign-exchange reserve requirements for insurers, helping reduce currency risk.
This is a credit positive move as it enhances the financial stability of insurers in the face of currency fluctuations.

Sovereigns

United States

Ended Salvadorians' Temporary Protected Status, posing a risk for El Salvador's economy.
This could lead to increased migration pressure and economic instability in El Salvador.

Brazil

Unlikely to adhere to its "Golden Rule" due to fiscal pressures, a credit negative.
The country's financial constraints may hinder its ability to maintain fiscal discipline.

Vietnam

Continued anti-graft efforts, indicating a focus on improving competitiveness.
This is a credit positive as it may lead to better governance and economic performance.

US Public Finance

California court ruling on pension reforms adds to the stringent judicial views, potentially affecting public finances.
The ruling may lead to increased scrutiny and financial challenges for state pension systems.

Securitization

UK's Open Banking initiative is credit positive for consumer securitizations.
The initiative enhances transparency and competition in the financial services sector, potentially improving securitization opportunities.