2011年-世界发展银行全球_Sudan___Rapid_Assessment_of_the_Public_Investment_Portfolio_in_the_Fiscal_Adjustment_Context_68页_3mb

Sudan - Rapid Assessment of the Public Investment Portfolio in the Fiscal Adjustment Context

Executive Summary

This report presents a rapid assessment of Sudan's public investment portfolio in the context of the anticipated fiscal adjustment following the secession of South Sudan. The analysis highlights the need for strategic prioritization of public investment to ensure efficient use of limited resources and to support economic and social development in the post-Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) era. The World Bank, in collaboration with the Government of Sudan, conducted the assessment using available data from the Government Resource Planning (GRP) system, identifying key challenges and areas for improvement in public investment management.

Core Content

1. Introduction

• Fiscal Shock Context: The secession of South Sudan has led to a significant loss of oil revenues, prompting the need for fiscal adjustment.
• 2011 Amended Budget: The budget anticipates a 12% revenue loss and plans a 7% reduction in total expenditure, with a major portion affecting public investment.
• Importance of Public Investment: Public investment is crucial for economic and social development, especially in post-CPA Sudan where the oil-driven economy needs a new growth driver.

2. A Framework for the Public Investment Adjustment Decision

• Three-Step Decision-Making Process:

  • Step 1 – Yes/No Decision: Projects without justifiable grounds for financing should be dropped.
  • Step 2 – Problematic Projects: Projects with cost overruns or significant delays need to be reassessed.
  • Step 3 – Prioritization Decision: Projects that pass the first two steps are ranked based on multi-criteria, including policy impact and financial feasibility.

• Key Prioritization Criteria:

  • Pro-poor Impact: Focus on vulnerable populations and marginalized regions.
  • Infrastructure Development: Priority to projects that improve infrastructure and basic services.
  • Foreign Financing Impact: Projects that leverage foreign financing are preferred.
  • Financial Self-sustainability: Projects with sufficient financial returns to cover operation and maintenance.
  • Closeness to Completion: Projects that are well-advanced and likely to be completed in the fiscal year.

3. Key Findings of the Rapid Assessment

• Sectoral Prioritization: Agriculture and energy have received significant investment, while public investment in pro-poor areas such as health, education, and water remains weak.
• Concentration in Mega Projects: The thirteen largest projects account for over 60% of the total fiscal burden, raising concerns about the adequacy of project appraisal and feasibility.
• External Financing Dependency: 75% of the 2011 national development budget is planned to be sourced from foreign financing, particularly from China, but the reliability of such financing is questionable.
• Cost Overruns and Delays: 34 projects have exceeded their estimated costs, and 17 have been delayed for over ten years. These require reassessment.
• Poor Budget Execution: 21 projects have zero execution, and 57 have execution rates below 10%, indicating inefficiencies in project management and funding allocation.
• Mixed Recurrent and Capital Spending: The distinction between recurrent and capital spending is not clear, complicating resource allocation and management.

4. Immediate Task

• Collect Key Information: Line ministries need to gather essential data for prioritization, using a standardized profile template.
• Review Projects: The MoFNE and line ministries should review projects based on objective criteria, with the MoFNE conducting separate feasibility assessments on high-impact projects.
• Modify Prioritization Lists: The MoFNE may need to adjust the prioritization lists submitted by line ministries to align with national development needs.

5. Strategic Decisions on Priority Development Areas

• Basic Services: Investment in health, education, and water is critical, especially in rural and marginalized areas.
• Infrastructure: Infrastructure development, particularly in water and transport, is a major priority due to its potential for long-term growth.
• Federal Support: Federal transfers should be directed towards state-level development budgets to ensure investment in basic services, as state governments lack sufficient own revenue.

6. Mid- and Long-term Tasks

• Improve Database Management: Develop a centralized, electronic system to track project performance throughout the life cycle.
• Enhance Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E): Establish a central monitoring unit and strengthen M&E activities at the line ministry level.
• Build Efficient PIM System: A well-structured public investment management system is needed to ensure systematic project appraisal, continuous monitoring, and effective prioritization.

Key Implications

• The current public investment portfolio is vulnerable and requires immediate re-prioritization.
• A strategic and objective approach is essential to ensure efficient use of resources and alignment with national development goals.
• Strengthening the institutional framework for public investment management is critical for long-term sustainability and effectiveness.

Conclusion

This rapid assessment underscores the urgency of re-prioritizing public investment in Sudan amid fiscal constraints. It outlines a framework for decision-making and highlights the need for improved data collection, transparency, and institutional capacity to manage public investment effectively in the post-CPA era.