20180529-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_492kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the equity research market performance and investment opportunities in the Building Materials and Internet sectors, with a focus on quartz materials and the WeChat ecosystem.

Key Index Performance

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	EPS 18E (%)	EPS 19E (%)	P/E 18E	P/E 19E
HSI	0.7	1.7	2.9	43.8	10.5	11.9	10.8
HSCEI	0.6	0.4	3.5	26.2	10.4	8.0	7.3
MXCN	0.4	3.5	4.4	55.3	15.7	13.3	11.5
SHSZ300	0.4	2.0	-4.9	35.3	15.1	12.8	11.1
SHCOMP	-0.2	1.7	-5.2	40.2	13.7	12.3	10.8
SZCOMP	-0.2	1.7	-4.9	76.4	23.1	19.7	16.0
INDU	-0.2	1.8	0.1	40.0	8.8	16.3	15.0
SPX	-0.2	1.9	1.8	45.8	10.0	17.1	15.6
CCMP	0.1	4.4	7.7	82.3	15.3	22.4	19.4
UKX	0.2	3.0	0.6	167.3	5.6	14.1	13.3
NKY	-0.2	-0.1	-1.4	60.4	14.8	16.4	14.3

Hong Kong ADRs Performance

HK Ticket Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700 TENCENT	405.2	0.30	17.0	-0.12
1398 ICBC	6.6	0.15	9.2	-2.10
939 CCB	8.1	0.12	165.0	-3.91
857 PETROCHINA	6.4	6.45	29.4	0.79
5 HSBC	76.9	-0.26	6.6	1.22
941 CHINA MOBILE	71.8	-0.35	20.6	0.83
2318 PING AN	78.2	0.51	19.9	-0.08
3988 BANK OF CHINA	4.2	0.72	13.1	-0.49
386 SINOPEC	7.3	0.27	92.3	-2.09
1299 AIA	72.8	3.26	36.1	0.08

Building Materials: Quartz

Main Points

Strong Growth: Quartz materials, especially for semiconductors, are experiencing strong growth due to the upturn in the global semiconductor industry and rising capex.
Localization: The domestic semiconductor industry is driving the localization of upstream quartz materials, increasing bargaining power for Chinese players.
Market Size: The global quartz glass market for semiconductors exceeded US$2bn in 2017, with semiconductor quartz crucibles, front-end processing quartz devices, and photomask substrates being key segments.
Upstream and Downstream: Upstream quartz glass manufacturers (e.g., Feilihua, Pacific Quartz) and downstream processors (e.g., Hangzhou Dahe, Kaide Quartz) are part of the value chain. Processors purchase materials and produce devices for equipment manufacturers.
Investment Outlook: Domestic quartz leaders are expected to enjoy strong topline growth, driven by technological advancements and certification breakthroughs.

Internet Sector: WeChat User Growth

Main Points

User Penetration: WeChat continues to expand into lower-tier cities, converting middle-aged people in rural areas into mobile internet users.
Mini Programs: Mini-programs are closing the loop, enriching the WeChat ecosystem with payment and e-commerce features.
Monetization Models: Four key customer acquisition models have emerged: group-buying (Pinduoduo), social sharing (Boheyuedu), cash reward (Qutoutiao), and business-side integration.
Mini Games: Mini games are expected to replicate the success of original paid apps, especially games, which dominate monetization in the ecosystem.
Investment Highlights: Companies like Anysoft Information Technology (300571 CH), Huge Leaf (600226 CH), and China Innovationpay Group (8083 HK) are potential beneficiaries due to WeChat's growth and monetization opportunities.

Investment Recommendations

Quartz Sector: Positive outlook with strong growth potential for leading domestic companies.
WeChat Ecosystem: Expected to see more diversified monetization and user traffic management, with mini games as a key growth driver.

Risks

Regulatory Restrictions: WeChat may impose strict controls on social sharing.
Content Quality: Lower-than-expected content or product quality could impact performance.
User Growth: Weaker-than-expected user growth or monetization could affect the outlook.

Rating Definitions

Rating	Description
Buy	Outperforms benchmark by >15%
Accumulate	Outperforms benchmark by 5%-15%
Hold	Relative performance between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Underperforms benchmark by >5%

Sector Ratings

Rating	Description
Positive	Outperforms benchmark by >10%
Neutral	Relative performance between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Underperforms benchmark by >10%

Analyst Certification

The research analyst(s) certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal opinions and that no part of their remuneration is tied to specific recommendations.

Disclosure of Interests

GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold shares in the securities mentioned.
No investment banking relationship with the companies mentioned in the past 12 months.
Analysts and their associates have no financial interests in the securities.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. The information may be subject to change and is not guaranteed. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of the materials.

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