2024-05-12-ITIF-生物制药研发投资与预期收益的关系_改进政策证据（英）_8页_209kb

Summary of Biopharma R&D Investment and Expected Returns

• Key Findings:

  • A strong positive correlation exists between expected financial returns from approved drugs and investment in R&D by biopharmaceutical firms.
  • Government policies, such as price controls or reduced intellectual property protection, decrease expected financial returns, leading to reduced R&D investment, fewer new medicines, and limited clinical studies.
  • The extent of this trade-off remains poorly understood due to limitations in existing studies, including outdated data, poor data quality, and incomplete analysis of current R&D dynamics.

• Current Situation:

  • U.S. agencies like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) depend on existing studies for policy impact estimates, despite their recognized shortcomings.
  • The CBO has called for new research to better evaluate the trade-off between cost savings and future health benefits from biopharma innovation.

• Recommendations and Call to Action:

  • Generate better evidence by improving data accessibility and conducting more rigorous studies.
  • Reform policy simulation models to reflect capital mobility, risk tolerance at various development stages, and decisions on post-market advances.
  • Ensure policy impact assessments are transparent, replicable, independent, and clearly represent uncertainty.
  • Policymakers should demand more accurate evidence before expanding policies to avoid unintended consequences on health outcomes and R&D.