20180813-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly__Production_Suspension_to_Start_in_Shandong_and_Hebei_for_Environmental_Protection_Reasons_12页_1mb
报告摘要
China Cement Sector Summary (August 13, 2018)
Core Content
The document provides an analysis of the Chinese cement sector, focusing on price trends, production suspensions, inventory levels, and stock performance. It also includes valuation metrics and market share data across various regions.
Cement Price Trends
- National Average Cement Price: Dropped by 1.2% to RMB397/tonne from the previous week.
- Regional Price Changes:
- Decreased: RMB20-70/tonne in Liaoning, Hunan, Hainan, Yunnan, and Shaanxi.
- Increased: RMB20/tonne in Zhejiang.
- Reason for Decline: Weak demand in the northeast due to high temperatures and rainy weather.
- Inventory Level: Increased slightly to 58.9% from 57.4% week on week.
- Price Outlook: Prices are expected to rebound gradually in late August as the low season progresses and production suspensions resume.
Production Suspension
- Shandong and Hebei will suspend all clinker production lines for environmental protection reasons.
- Shandong: Suspension for 20 days, starting from August 17, 2018.
- Hebei: Suspension for 10 days, starting from August 10, 2018.
- Impact on Stocks: Properly managed inventory levels are expected to benefit CNBM (3323.HK) and BBMG (2009.HK).
Stock Performance
- Cement Stocks under Coverage rose by 5.1% on average last week.
- Best Performer: CR Cement (1313.HK) increased by 7.7%.
- Weakest Performer: BBMG (2009.HK) increased by 3.1%.
Valuation Table
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (HK$) | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (x) 2017 | PER (x) 2018E | PER (x) 2019E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2017 | EV/EBITDA (x) 2018E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2019E | Net Debt/Equity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conch Cement | 914 HK Equity | BUY | 49.45 | 30,933 | 15.3 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | Net Cash |
| ONBM | 3323 HK Equity | BUY | 8.30 | 6,798 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 169 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | BUY | 2.98 | 5,460 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 95 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | BUY | 9.10 | 8,147 | 16.7 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3 |
| Simple Average | 13.4 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 89 | ||||
| Weighted Average | 14.5 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 33 |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (x) 2017 | PER (x) 2018E | PER (x) 2019E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2017 | EV/EBITDA (x) 2018E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2019E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conch Cement | 30,933 | 15.3 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| ONBM | 6,798 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 7.4 |
| BBMG | 5,460 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 8.3 |
| CR Cement | 8,147 | 16.7 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Asia Cement | 1,370 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| West China Cement | 920 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Tianrui Cement | 2,531 | 15.6 | n.a. | n.a. | 9.2 | n.a. | n.a. |
Market Share by Region (2017)
| Region | Anhui Conch | CNBM | CR Cement | Shanshui | BBMG | Asia Cement | WCC | Huaxin-Lafarge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | 18.9% | 26.8% | 1.4% | 5.2% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Central China | 11.6% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 7.8% |
| North China | 0.0% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 5.9% | 30.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northeast China | 0.0% | 22.3% | 0.0% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southwest China | 11.7% | 25.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.8% |
| Northwest China | 7.5% | 26.6% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Grand Total | 11.0% | 20.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.8% |
Analyst Notes
- Wong Chi Man – Head of Research
- Mark Lau – Research Analyst
- Contact Information:
- Wong Chi Man: (852) 3698-6317, cmwong@chinastock.com.hk
- Mark Lau: (852) 3698-6393, marklau@chinastock.com.hk
Equity Ratings Explanation
- BUY: Share price is expected to increase by >20% within 12 months.
- SELL: Share price is expected to decrease by >20% within 12 months.
- HOLD: No clear catalyst, and downgraded from BUY pending clearer signal to reinstate BUY or further downgrade to SELL.
Disclaimer and Disclosure
- The report is not directed at any person or entity in jurisdictions where distribution is illegal.
- The information is based on sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed.
- The report is not an offer or invitation to buy/sell securities.
- The company may have financial interests in the subject companies, with interests possibly equal to or exceeding 1% of market capitalization.
- The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
Copyright
- No part of this material may be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited.
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