2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Costa_Rica_Selected_Issues_24页_780kb

Costa Rica: Selected Issues Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of potential spillovers to Costa Rica from international shocks, including trade, financial, and fiscal linkages, as well as the impact of banking and sovereign stress. It also includes an assessment of potential output growth and fiscal vulnerability.

Main Trade and Financial Linkages

• Trade Composition: Costa Rica is a small open economy with trade (goods and services) accounting for 38% of exports and 44% of imports. The U.S. is the main trading partner, representing about 40% of both exports and imports. China is the second most important trading partner, followed by the Netherlands and Mexico.
• Geographical Diversification: Trade with Latin American countries accounts for about 30% of total trade. The Euro Area accounts for 15% of exports and 7.2% of imports.
• Foreign Bank Exposure: About a third of the banking sector assets are held by foreign banks. The net external position of the banking sector is around 4.5% of GDP, with the majority of assets and liabilities concentrated in the U.S., Panama, and Europe.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): U.S. investments dominate FDI in Costa Rica, accounting for 64% of the total stock. Outward FDI is small, at about 3% of GDP, and mainly concentrated in Central America.

Growth Spillovers

• VAR Analysis: A multi-country VAR model was used to assess the impact of growth shocks in main trading partners on Costa Rican GDP growth.
• Shock Scenarios: Four scenarios were analyzed, including a 0.5 standard deviation reduction in the dynamic domestic growth component of the U.S., China, European countries, and Central America.
• Impact of Shocks:
  • A U.S. shock would reduce Costa Rican GDP growth by 0.4–0.6 percentage points in 2013 and 2014.
  • A Chinese shock would reduce GDP growth by 0.2–0.4 percentage points.
  • European and Central American shocks have minor effects, with impacts not exceeding 0.11 percentage points in both years.
• Euro Area Crisis: A severe intensification of the Euro Area crisis could cut regional output by up to 0.5% relative to baseline projections, which is relatively modest due to limited trade and financial linkages with Europe.

Fiscal Spillovers

• Fiscal Consolidation Impact: The fiscal consolidation in the rest of the world, particularly in the U.S., has small but measurable spillovers on Costa Rica.
• Simulation Results:
  • A 0.5% reduction in the U.S. GDP growth would lower Costa Rican output growth by about 0.1 percentage points.
  • The current fiscal adjustment in main trading partners would lower GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage points in 2013.
• Sovereign Debt Spillovers: Losses in the sovereign debt of the three IMF/EU-program countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal) would not directly impact foreign credit availability to Costa Rica due to limited exposure.

Banking and Sovereign Stress Spillovers

• Contagion Module: The analysis uses a contagion module to simulate downstream risks from losses on assets.
• Upstream Exposure: Costa Rica's upstream exposure to BIS reporting banks is about 8% of GDP, with the U.S. and Canada having the most significant impact.
• Deleveraging Effects:
  • A 10% decline in U.S. and Canadian assets would reduce foreign bank credit to Costa Rica by about 3.7% of GDP.
  • The maximum impact on the banking system would be about 1% of GDP.
• Indirect Effects: Indirect effects from shocks, such as reduced market confidence and increased non-performing loans, could have a larger impact than direct spillovers.

Potential Output Estimates

• Methodologies Used: Three approaches were used to estimate potential output growth: Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, production function (PF), and regime-switching (RS) model.
• Estimates:
  • HP Filter: Potential growth at 4.8% with output gap volatility at 2.4%.
  • Production Function: Potential growth at 4.7% with output gap volatility at 2.3%.
  • Regime-Switching Model: Potential growth at 5.0% with output gap volatility at 1.1%.
• Average Potential Growth: The average potential growth rate for 1994-2011 was 4.8%, with output gap volatility at 1.9%.
• Recent Trends: Potential growth slowed in recent years, from 4.7% in 2009-2010 to 4.1% in 2009-2010, and is projected to recover to around 4.3–4.4% in the medium term.
• Output Gap: The output gap was negative in 2009-10 (about -1.6% of potential output), and is projected to close by 2012 according to the RS and PF approaches, but remain slightly negative according to the HP filter.

Fiscal Vulnerability and Medium-Term Sustainability

• Fiscal Position: Costa Rica's fiscal balance deteriorated sharply, turning from a small surplus in 2008 to a deficit of over 5% of GDP by 2010, and to a 4.5% deficit in 2012.
• Public Debt: Consolidated public sector debt reached 38% of GDP by 2012, up from 27.25% in 2008.
• Fiscal Outlook: Without corrective measures, the fiscal deficit and public debt are projected to rise to 7.5% and 50% of GDP by 2018, respectively.
• Debt Sustainability:
  • Large gross financing needs expose Costa Rica to market sentiment changes.
  • A stable domestic investor base helps mitigate these risks, with over 80% of public debt held domestically.
  • Interest rates on local currency-denominated government bonds rose by about 200 basis points in 2012, reaching 11–11.5%.
  • Higher interest rates could worsen public debt dynamics by increasing the interest bill.

Key Information

• Trade and Financial Linkages: The U.S. is the primary trading and financial partner.
• Growth Spillovers: U.S. shocks have the largest impact on Costa Rica's GDP growth.
• Fiscal Spillovers: Fiscal consolidation in the U.S. has measurable but limited effects.
• Banking Spillovers: Deleveraging by international banks can reduce credit availability to Costa Rica.
• Potential Output: The average potential output growth rate is around 4.8%, with a moderate recovery expected.
• Fiscal Vulnerability: High public debt and rising interest rates pose significant risks to medium-term fiscal sustainability.