2023-01-31-联合国-2023年世界经济形势与展望报告_178页_11mb

Summary of World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023

Core Content

The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023 report, published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) in collaboration with UNCTAD and five regional commissions, presents a comprehensive analysis of the global economic landscape in 2023. It highlights the challenges posed by multiple economic shocks, including the lingering effects of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, high inflation, and the climate crisis, which have collectively impacted global growth and development progress.

Main Points

• Global Economic Slowdown: The global economy is experiencing a broad-based and severe slowdown, with output growth projected to decelerate from 3% in 2022 to 1.9% in 2023, marking one of the lowest growth rates in recent decades. Growth is expected to moderate to 2.7% in 2024 if macroeconomic headwinds begin to ease.

• High Inflation and Monetary Policy: Inflationary pressures have persisted, with global inflation reaching its highest level in two decades in 2022. Central banks, especially in developed countries, have implemented aggressive monetary tightening, leading to higher interest rates and increased financial uncertainty. However, inflation is expected to gradually ease in 2023.

• Developed Economies: Growth in the United States is projected to slow to 0.4% in 2023, while the EU is forecast to grow by 0.2%. The UK is expected to experience a recession, with GDP contraction of 0.8%. Japan's growth is expected to be among the strongest in developed economies at 1.5%, due to its continued accommodative monetary and fiscal policies.

• Developing Economies: Most developing regions face a worsening outlook. China's growth is expected to improve slightly to 4.8% in 2023, but remain below pre-pandemic levels. In South Asia, growth is projected to moderate from 5.6% to 4.8%. In Africa, growth is expected to slow from 4.1% to 3.8%. In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is projected to decline to 1.4%, down from 3.8% in 2022. The least developed countries face significant challenges, with growth at 4.4%, far below the SDG 8 target of 7%.

• Debt and Balance of Payments Vulnerabilities: Developing countries are under financial pressure due to high borrowing costs, currency depreciation, and rising debt distress. Debt servicing has become a major burden, with public and publicly guaranteed external debt consuming an average of 10% of government revenues in Africa in 2021, up from 3% in 2011.

• Impact on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): The economic slowdown, inflation, and debt challenges are threatening progress on the SDGs. Job recovery has been uneven, with developing countries lagging behind. The global food and energy crisis, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, has worsened food insecurity and pushed millions into poverty. The Black Sea Grain Initiative has provided some relief, but the outlook remains uncertain.

• Need for Policy Action: The report urges policymakers to avoid short-term fiscal austerity and instead focus on bold, targeted fiscal measures to support a sustainable and inclusive recovery. It emphasizes the importance of international cooperation, debt restructuring, and investment in infrastructure, education, and health to achieve long-term economic resilience and progress towards the SDGs.

Key Information

• Partners in the Report: The report is produced by UN DESA in partnership with UNCTAD and five regional commissions (ECA, ECE, ECLAC, ESCAP, ESCWA), as well as UNWTO.

• Contact Information:

  • UN DESA: Li Junhua, undesa@un.org
  • UNCTAD: Rebeca Grynspan, sgo@unctad.org
  • UNECA: Antonio Pedro, ecainfo@uneca.org
  • UNECE: Olga Algayerova, unece_info@un.org
  • UNECLAC: Jose Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, secepal@cepal.org
  • UNESCAP: Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, escap-scas@un.org
  • UNESCWA: Rola Dashti, @ https://www.unescwa.org/contact

• ISBN and Publication Details:

  • ISBN: 978-92-1-109184-7
  • PDF ISBN: 978-92-1-002461-7
  • Print ISSN: 1995-2074
  • Online ISSN: 2411-8370
  • United Nations publication Sales No. E.23.II.C.1

• Document Date: Data presented in the report are based on information available as of 15 December 2022.

• SDGs and Their Relevance: The report underscores the importance of achieving the SDGs, particularly in the context of inequality, climate change, and economic recovery. It highlights the need for urgent action on climate change, as well as the promotion of inclusive and sustainable development.

Conclusion

The report serves as a critical call to action for global leaders, emphasizing the need for coordinated and innovative policy responses to address the current economic challenges. It outlines the risks of inaction and the potential for recovery through fiscal stimulus, international support, and a focus on sustainable development.