2025-06-10-Jefferies-Safestore控股公司（SAFE）_Safestore_Holdings_Plc_初步观点_2025年上半年中期业绩_同店入住率上升0.6个百分点_同店每可用平方英尺收入上升2.3_7页_101kb

Safestore Holdings Plc - Equity Research Summary

Rating and Price Target

• Current Rating: HOLD
• Price Target: 715p, representing a 15% upside from the closing price of 624p
• First View from 1H25 Interims: Revenue per fully occupied premise (REVPAF) growth of +2.3%, with LFL Occupancy improving to 78.2% (underlying occupancy at 74.4%), supported by stronger performance in the UK (+1.6%), Paris (+0.8%), and Expansion Markets (+17.0%).
• Conclusion: Emphasizes safety with revenue growth at constant exchange rates (CER) +4.0% and EPRA EPS declining tied to increased expenses.

Key Financial Highlights

• Revenue growth of +4.0% CER, fueled by LFL RevPAF increase, while EPRA EPS decreased by 11% to £43.6m, impacted by higher admin costs (£1.9m) and interest expense (£3.3m), with guidance for further interest increases in full year.
• Net Asset Value (NAV) increased to 1,117p, up from FY24, but NTA growth was note-worthy.
• H1 2025 free cash flow before new store development and EasyBox JV investment stood at £36.1m, reflecting strong operating cash flow.

Balance Sheet Overview

• Debt Metrics: Net debt at £1,010.5m, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 27.4% and interest cover ratio (ICR) of 3.9x.
• Currency and Debt Structure: Cost of debt decreased to 3.6% due to increased Euro-denominated debt.
• Capital Allocation: B/Sheet shows free cash flow primarily directed toward new store development (up £58m) and the EasyBox JV investment of £36.8m.

H2 2025 Outlook

• New Store Openings: Four new stores set to open, adding approximately 201,000 sq ft, potentially dilutive to earnings.
• Development Pipeline: Non-LFL stores are on track to deliver incremental EBITDA of £35-£40m upon stabilization.

Risks and Valuation

• Downside Risks: European growth slowdown, particularly in the UK, could affect performance.
• Upside Potential: Faster recovery in business customer demand for self-storage, as flagged by analysts.
• Valuation Methodology: DCF-based price target, with sensitivity to revenue growth and European expansion trends.