2007年-世界发展银行全球_Uganda_-_Fiscal_Policy_for_Growth___Public_Expenditure_Review_2007_Volume_2_Main_Report_224页_14mb

Uganda Fiscal Policy for Growth: Summary

Core Content

This document, Uganda Fiscal Policy for Growth: Public Expenditure Review 2007, is a comprehensive analysis of Uganda's fiscal policy and its implications for economic growth. It is structured into six main chapters and several annexes, focusing on fiscal space, efficiency in public spending, and the role of fiscal policy in supporting growth and development. The report is prepared by the World Bank and is intended for official use only.

Main Report Structure

1. Growth Challenges, Resource Requirements and Uganda's Fiscal Framework

This section explores the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth, both theoretically and practically. It is divided into four parts:

• A. Fiscal Policy and Growth: Reviews global and theoretical insights into the effects of fiscal policy on growth. It emphasizes that fiscal policy is a key instrument for achieving macroeconomic stability and long-term growth, and that it must be designed to balance these objectives.
• B. Uganda's Fiscal Policy and Growth Implications: Analyzes how Uganda's fiscal policy has historically affected growth, particularly through its focus on stabilization and the reduction of public spending in priority areas.
• C. Investment Needs for Growth: Estimates the investment requirements for achieving growth rates of 6% and 7% in Uganda, highlighting the need for public investment in key sectors.
• D. Finding Fiscal Resources for Growth: Suggests where Uganda should look for additional fiscal resources, using a macro model (MAMS) to identify budgetary areas with potential for reallocation.

2. In Search of the Holy Grail: Achieving “Value for Money” in Public Spending

This chapter outlines a methodology for improving the efficiency of public spending in Uganda. It introduces the PEAP (Poverty Eradication Action Plan) approach to measuring value for money in public spending, emphasizing the need for better resource allocation and management.

3. Operational Guide to Measuring Efficiency and Waste in Primary Education Spending

This chapter provides a detailed guide on how to measure efficiency and waste in primary education spending. It includes:

• A. Introduction and Scope: Defines the purpose of the analysis and outlines the scope of the study.
• B. Background on Primary Education Financing: Reviews the overall financing of primary education, including trends in inputs, outputs, and unit costs.
• C. Technical Efficiency in Recurrent Budgets: Examines the efficiency of recurrent spending in primary education and identifies areas of waste.
• D. Conclusions and Recommendations: Summarizes findings and provides actionable recommendations to improve the efficiency of primary education spending.

4. Fiscal Sustainability Analysis

This chapter focuses on the sustainability of Uganda's fiscal policy over time, using a variety of scenarios and models:

• A. Introduction and Summary: Provides an overview of the fiscal sustainability analysis.
• B. Fiscal Performance in the Past Decade: Reviews Uganda's fiscal performance and its implications for future growth.
• C. Trends in Spending: Analyzes the composition and level of public spending over the years.
• D. Trends in Revenue: Reviews the trends in revenue collection and its implications for fiscal sustainability.
• E. Baseline Scenario: Describes the "business as usual" scenario for fiscal sustainability.
• F. Assumptions in Baseline Scenario: Details the assumptions used in the baseline scenario.
• G. Sensitivity Analysis: Examines how changes in key variables affect fiscal sustainability.
• H. Growth Scenario: Proposes a fiscal policy for growth, analyzing its potential impact.
• I. Assumptions in Growth Scenario: Lists the assumptions used in the growth scenario.
• J. Results from Growth Scenario: Presents the outcomes of the growth scenario.
• K. Policy Implications: Summarizes the implications of the growth scenario for budget planning and policy discussion.

5. Infrastructure Sectors

This chapter provides an overview of Uganda's infrastructure sector and its performance relative to international benchmarks:

• A. Benchmarking Uganda's Infrastructure: Compares Uganda's infrastructure with that of its regional and international peers.
• B. Composition and Management of Infrastructure Spending: Reviews the composition and management of infrastructure spending, including the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs).

6. Raising Additional Tax Revenue

This chapter discusses the potential for increasing tax revenue in Uganda, focusing on:

• A. Summary and Conclusions: Summarizes the key findings and recommendations.
• B. Macro-Level Revenue Performance: Reviews the overall performance of tax collection at the macro level.
• C. Long-Term Perspectives for Revenue Collection: Outlines strategies for increasing tax revenue in the long term.
• D. Assessing Main Taxes: Analyzes the performance of Uganda's main taxes and identifies priorities for increasing revenue.
• E. Analyzing Tax Expenditures: Reviews the impact of tax expenditures on the fiscal system and suggests ways to improve it.

Key Information

• Currency: Ugandan Shilling (UGS), with 1 U$ = 1,622.50 UGS.
• Fiscal Year: July 1 – June 30.
• Fiscal Policy Goals: Balance between macroeconomic stability and long-term growth.
• Key Concepts:
  • Fiscal Space: The ability of a government to increase spending without jeopardizing fiscal sustainability.
  • Value for Money: A measure of efficiency in public spending.
  • Fiscal Sustainability: The ability of a government to maintain its fiscal position over time without compromising economic growth.
• Public Spending Priorities: The report emphasizes the need for public investment in infrastructure, education, and other growth-enhancing areas.
• Tax Revenue: The report discusses the potential for increasing tax revenue through better tax collection, reducing inefficient taxes, and managing tax expenditures.
• Efficiency in Public Spending: The report highlights the importance of efficiency in public spending, particularly in the education sector, and provides a framework for measuring it.
• Data and Models: The report uses a variety of data sources and models, including the MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulation), to analyze fiscal policy and its impact on growth.

Conclusion

The report provides a detailed analysis of Uganda's fiscal policy and its implications for growth and development. It emphasizes the importance of balancing macroeconomic stability with long-term growth, and highlights the need for more efficient public spending, particularly in the education and infrastructure sectors. The report also discusses the potential for increasing tax revenue and improving the fiscal sustainability of Uganda's public finances.