2007年-世界发展银行全球_Uganda_-_Fiscal_Policy_for_Growth___Public_Expenditure_Review_2007_Volume_1_Executive_Summary_28页_1mb

Uganda Fiscal Policy for Growth: Summary

Core Content

This document, Uganda Fiscal Policy for Growth: Public Expenditure Review 2007, is a comprehensive analysis of Uganda's fiscal strategy and its implications for economic growth. It is structured around key themes of resource allocation, fiscal sustainability, and efficiency in public spending, with a focus on infrastructure investments and maintenance. The report is intended to guide Uganda's government in developing a more growth-oriented fiscal policy.

Main Views

• Infrastructure Investment is Critical: Uganda's public capital stock is low, and rapid economic growth is outpacing the growth of public infrastructure. To sustain annual GDP growth over 6.5%, the report estimates that the public infrastructure stock would need to double in 15 years. This would require an annual investment of about $120 million in 2005/06 prices, or 1.2% of GDP.

• Current Infrastructure Spending is Inefficient: Uganda's infrastructure spending, particularly in roads, energy, and water, is not meeting the necessary levels. For instance, the country's paved road coverage is only around 7%, far below the average for low-income countries (27%). Electricity access is also low, at 8.6%, compared to 27.2% in Sub-Saharan Africa and 34.7% in low-income countries. Maintenance spending is especially lacking, with road maintenance being only a fifth of the normative level and electricity distribution losses reaching over 35%.

• Fiscal Pressures are Deteriorating the Budget Composition: The budget is under increasing pressure due to rising employee costs in key public sectors. This has led to a deterioration in the composition of spending, with a growing emphasis on recurrent expenditures and a decline in investment. The report argues that the current fiscal strategy is not adequately supporting growth, and that the budget needs to be realigned to reflect a more growth-friendly allocation.

• Public Sector Reforms are Necessary: The report highlights the need for deep public sector reforms, including improving the efficiency of public spending, reducing waste, and enhancing accountability. It emphasizes the importance of a structured and strategic approach to public service efficiency, especially in the context of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP).

• Tax Policy and Revenue Mobilization are Key: Uganda's tax system is identified as a significant constraint on revenue mobilization. The report suggests the development of a tax expenditure account to better understand and manage the impact of tax incentives and exemptions on public finances.

• Aid and Debt Management Need Caution: While Uganda is seeking to reduce its reliance on aid, the report cautions against reducing the deficit too quickly. It notes that aid could increase for import-intensive infrastructure investments without harming macroeconomic stability or competitiveness.

Key Recommendations

• Increase Infrastructure Investment and Maintenance: The report recommends that Uganda should prioritize infrastructure investments, especially in roads and energy, and address the backlog of maintenance spending. This includes improving the efficiency of allocation and implementation in these sectors.

• Improve Revenue Performance: Uganda should work to increase revenue collection without taxing key growth sectors. This would help to reduce the reliance on aid and improve fiscal sustainability.

• Enhance Public Sector Efficiency: There is a need for a more systematic approach to public spending efficiency, including the development of a working program to reduce waste and improve the effectiveness of public expenditures, particularly in priority sectors.

• Strengthen Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: The report suggests that the Ministry of Finance should incorporate fiscal sustainability tools into its budget framework papers and the preparation of the next PEAP. This would help to better understand the trade-offs between macroeconomic and budgetary priorities.

• Improve Data Reporting and Transparency: The report identifies significant weaknesses in Uganda's public spending data reporting, which hampers the ability to assess the efficiency and impact of fiscal policies. It recommends that future Public Expenditure Reviews (PERs) should place greater emphasis on fiscal reporting.

• Enhance Accountability and Monitoring: A culture of better value for money should be instilled in the public sector. This includes the development of templates for efficiency assessments and the use of sector-specific Budget Framework Papers (BFPs) to monitor key indicators.

Key Information

• Fiscal Year: July 1 – June 30.
• Currency: Ugandan Shilling (UGS), with 1 U$ = 1,622.50 UGS.
• Weight and Measures: Metric System.
• Key Acronyms:
  • BFP: Budget Framework Paper
  • MTEF: Medium-Term Expenditure Framework
  • LTEF: Long-term Expenditure Framework
  • PEAP: Poverty Eradication Action Plan
  • PEMCOM: Public Expenditure Management Committee
  • UEDCL: Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Limited
  • NWSC: National Water and Sewerage Corporation
  • PAF: Poverty Alleviation Fund
  • GFS: Government Financial Statistics
  • CIFA: Country Integrated Fiduciary Assessment
  • CPIA: Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
  • CEM: Country Economic Memorandum
  • FSA: Fiscal Sustainability Analysis

Conclusion

The report concludes that Uganda's fiscal strategy must be realigned to support economic growth. This involves increasing infrastructure investments and maintenance, improving public sector efficiency, and enhancing fiscal reporting and transparency. It emphasizes the need for political leadership to signal a step change in public service behavior and for a more systematic and strategic approach to fiscal management. The recommendations are aimed at ensuring that public resources are used more effectively to achieve Uganda's development goals.