20250707-宏源期货-MEG早评_2页_307kb

EG Market Summary

Current Prices and Changes

• Stone brain oil CFR Japan: 578.75 USD/ton, an increase of 0.24%.
• Fibers price index Ethylene (NEA): 851.00 USD/ton, no change.
• Crude costs Ethylene oxide (East China): 6450 RMB/ton, no change.
• Ethylene glycol (MEG) spot prices: Market median at 4370 RMB/ton, a 0.23% increase.
• DCE EG主力合约收盘价: 4277 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous close.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

• Ethylene glycol production: Coal-based synthetic gas method profitability at 621.24 RMB/ton, no change; MTO method tax-after profit negative.
• Demand indicators: PTA产业链负荷率 for polyester factories dropped to 88.24%, down 0.28% from previous; Polyester machinery utilization in Jiangsu hit 61.22%, no change.
• Overall MEG market sentiment: Weak due to anticipated supply increases from plant restarts and reduced demand from polyester, but limited by low inventory levels at main ports.

Market Events and Updates

• An EG plant in Anhui (300,000-ton) is set to resume operations by this weekend after a shutdown, adding potential supply.
• Recent trading activity: Spot prices for MEG were discussed in 现货资讯, showing weak market and low成交量.
• Incoterms: Export prices like Ethylene-based EG ranged around -141.15 USD/ton, with no significant change.

Trading Strategy and Outlook

• Short-term outlook: Market expected to be range-bound with weak support from diminishing demand and cost pressures; 观点评分 is 0, indicating a cautious stance.
• Factors: No clear directional bias driven by modest demand or supply increases.
• Risk: Slow recovery in supply could amplify pressure on market fundamentals, but need to monitor inventory and demand closely.