2014年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Caucasus_Revisited_28页_559kb

Summary of "CAUCASUS REVISITED" by Michael Emerson

Core Content

This CEPS Policy Brief explores the prospects for resolving the long-standing frozen conflicts in the Caucasus, particularly in Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia. It analyzes the potential for new stability mechanisms, including federative, regional, and supranational solutions, in light of the failure of conventional diplomacy over the past decade. The brief also evaluates the roles of the EU, Russia, and the US in shaping the region's future and discusses how external powers and regional cooperation might offer viable alternatives to the status quo.

Main Views

• Frozen Conflicts: The conflicts in the Caucasus are not static; they have evolved into de facto regimes that exist without international recognition. These include Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia, which have become increasingly integrated with Russia and Armenia, respectively.

• Stability Pact Proposal: A comprehensive proposal for a Caucasus Stability Pact was developed by CEPS in 2002, but it was never implemented. It included:

  • Federative solutions for the conflicts.
  • A South Caucasus Community as a regional organization.
  • A regional security order under OSCE auspices.
  • An EU-Russia cooperation framework for Black Sea regional development.

• International Community's Role: The international community has been ineffective in delivering solutions. The OSCE and UN have engaged in limited mediation, but have not enforced any outcomes. The EU, Russia, and the US represent different paradigms of international relations, and their conflicting interests have hindered cooperation.

• Alternative Solutions: The brief outlines a taxonomy of possible solutions, ranging from unilateral secession to multi-tier governance systems involving supranational or external powers. These include:

  • One-tier: Denial of secession, de facto independence, or international recognition.
  • Two-tier: Federative or confederative models within a single state.
  • Three-tier: Regional cooperation involving multiple states and substate entities.
  • Four-tier: Involvement of supranational or external powers such as the EU, Russia, or the US.

• Supranational Roles: The EU, Russia, and the US each play distinct roles in the region:

  • Europeanisation: The EU's approach focuses on promoting democratic norms, economic integration, and human rights. While still a distant goal for the Caucasus, it is increasingly relevant due to the region's proximity to the EU and its membership in the Council of Europe.
  • Russification: Russia seeks to reassert influence over the Caucasus, often through informal mechanisms such as peacekeeping and economic integration. It has historically acted as a protector of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
  • Pax Americana: The US has shifted its focus post-9/11 towards counter-terrorism and the prevention of WMD proliferation. Its role in the Caucasus has become more militarized and strategic, particularly in relation to the broader Middle East.

• Coalition Models: The brief suggests that coalitions involving the EU, Russia, and the US could be more effective than traditional multilateral frameworks. These include:

  • EU-US as traditional Western allies.
  • Russia-US as an anti-terrorist alliance.
  • EU-Russia as two major European powers with overlapping interests in the region.

Key Information

• Abkhazia: De facto independent since 1992-93, it is economically integrated with Russia and politically protected, though not formally recognized. It has adopted the Russian rouble and is moving towards Russian citizenship. Russia maintains open border controls with Abkhazia but avoids formal recognition of its independence.

• Nagorno Karabakh: De facto integrated with Armenia, it shares the Armenian currency and customs union. The region has been a focal point for OSCE Minsk Group negotiations, which have been opaque and ineffective. There were reports of a potential agreement in 2003, but no formal outcome has been reached.

• South Ossetia: A similar situation to Abkhazia, with de facto independence and integration with Russia. It is not formally recognized by any international body.

• Regional Cooperation: The Caucasus could benefit from a regional community that includes both states and substate entities. This would allow for cooperation in areas such as transport, energy, and security, but the lack of strong incentives has prevented such structures from taking root.

• New Dynamics: The brief highlights the need for a new approach, moving beyond traditional diplomatic frameworks. It suggests that the region's future may lie in a hybrid model that combines elements of Europeanisation, Russification, and US-led security policies.

Conclusion

The Caucasus remains in a state of unresolved conflict, with de facto secessions entrenched through informal integration with external powers. The failure of the Stability Pact and the limitations of conventional diplomacy suggest that new, more flexible approaches are needed. The brief argues that the region's future may depend on a combination of supranational cooperation, regional integration, and the evolving roles of the EU, Russia, and the US in shaping the political and security landscape.

Annexes Summary

• Annex A: The "Boden competences paper" outlines the EU's approach to the Abkhazia conflict, focusing on federal solutions and the development of a regional community.

• Annex B: The 1998 OSCE proposal for a common state between Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh was a model of multi-tier governance, but it was never implemented due to political resistance.

Final Thoughts

The Caucasus is at a crossroads. While the international community has been slow to act, the region's future may lie in the hands of external powers and regional cooperation. A more integrated and cooperative approach, possibly involving a "Caucasian roadmap and quartet" similar to the Middle East, could offer a path forward. However, the deep-rooted divisions and the competing interests of the major powers suggest that such a solution will be complex and challenging to achieve.