2000-10-24-皮尤-Voter_Opinions_Stalled_27页_76kb

2000 Presidential Election Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed analysis of voter opinions and turnout patterns in the 2000 U.S. presidential election, focusing on the race between Al Gore and George W. Bush as it approached Election Day. It highlights the impact of personal qualities, issue positions, and demographic trends on voter preferences and behavior.

Main Points

• Voter Indecision: As of early October 2000, with two weeks to go, voter preferences were still closely divided. Gore led with 45% among registered voters, while Bush had 43%. Among likely voters, the race was even at 45% each.
• Turnout Factors: Gore supporters are less enthusiastic than Bush supporters, which could lead to a larger turnout gap in favor of Bush. Swing voters, who lean toward Gore, are less likely to vote, which could shift the electorate toward the GOP.
• Gender Gap Narrowing: The gender gap in presidential preference has decreased. Men now favor Bush by a smaller margin, and Gore's lead among women has also diminished.
• Enthusiasm Levels: Bush has a slight edge in voter enthusiasm. 65% of his supporters say they support him strongly, compared to 47% for Gore.
• Swing Voters' Influence: Swing voters remain a key group, with 23% of the electorate undecided or open to changing their minds. They favor Gore over Bush on most major issues and are less likely to vote than committed voters.
• Personality Issues: Gore's personal image has suffered, with more voters using negative terms to describe him, such as "liar" and "untrustworthy." In contrast, Bush's personal image has improved, and he is seen as more likable and a straight shooter.
• Issue Positions: Gore maintains a strong lead on major issues like health care, Social Security, and the economy. Bush has made gains on reducing partisanship but has not significantly improved his standing on taxes and defense.
• Negative Campaigning: Gore has had more success in getting his negative descriptions of Bush to resonate with voters. Attacks on Bush's record in Texas and his alleged favoritism toward the rich have had a notable impact, particularly on non-white and urban voters.
• News Interest: The attack on the USS Cole and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict generated high public interest. Campaign news interest remained steady, with 40% following it very closely.

Key Information

• Voter Support Trends:

  • Gore: 45% (registered voters), 45% (likely voters)
  • Bush: 43% (registered voters), 45% (likely voters)
  • Undecided: 23% of the electorate

• Demographics:

  • Gender: Men favor Bush by a smaller margin; women favor Gore slightly less.
  • Race: Non-white voters strongly favor Gore (73%), while white voters are more evenly split.
  • Age: Younger voters (under 30) are more likely to support Gore, while older voters (65+) are more likely to support Bush.
  • Education: Swing voters are less educated than committed voters.

• Personal Traits:

  • Gore: Seen as less likable and more of a typical politician. His personal image has deteriorated, with 38% of voters using negative terms to describe him.
  • Bush: Seen as more likable, a straight shooter, and more honest. His personal image has improved, with 32% of voters using negative terms to describe him.

• Swing Voter Behavior:

  • Swing voters favor Gore over Bush by a 34%–25% margin.
  • They are less likely to vote than committed voters, which could shift the electorate toward Bush.

• Negative Campaign Messages:

  • Gore's Attacks on Bush:
    • 24% of voters say it makes them less likely to vote for Bush.
    • 28% say Bush's record in Texas decreases their chances of supporting him.
    • 15% say the claim that Bush is not qualified to be president has negatively affected their vote.
  • Bush's Attacks on Gore:
    • 24% of voters say it makes them less likely to vote for Gore.
    • 15% and 21% say criticisms about Gore's personality and big government stance have little impact on their vote.

Conclusion

The 2000 presidential race was closely contested, with voter indecision persisting. While Gore maintained a strong lead on major policy issues, Bush improved his personal image and enthusiasm. Turnout patterns and the behavior of swing voters could significantly influence the final outcome. The gender gap had narrowed, and the influence of negative campaign messages varied by demographic group. The public's interest in news events, particularly the USS Cole bombing and Middle East conflict, was high, but campaign news interest remained relatively stable.