2000-10-09-皮尤-Presidential_Debate_Clouds_Voters_Choice_25页_79kb

2000 Presidential Election Poll Summary

Election Race Status

The race between Al Gore and George W. Bush was closely contested with no clear leader. In early October 2000, registered voters favored Bush 44%-43% overall, compared to a slight lead for Gore in September. Among likely voters, Bush had a narrow 45%-44% edge. The debate narrowed the initial lead Gore had in September, and voter preferences were more evenly divided than before.

Impact of the Debate

The first presidential debate clouded voters' choices. While Gore led in issue positions like health care and prescription drugs, his personality was seen as a major liability, with a 26% increase in voters disliking him on personality since September. Bush had a slight edge in likability and honesty ratings, but his qualification ratings fell behind Gore.

Key Poll Results (October 4-8, 2000)

• Registered Voters Poll: Bush led 44%-43%; Gore led among likely voters 48%-44%. No statistical significance.
• Issue Support: Gore had double-digit leads on health care affordability and Social Security. Bush gained on abortion and gun control but tied on taxes and education.
• Voter Preferences: Issues dominated over personality traits. Fewer undecided voters (20%) than in September, but a larger swing vote decrease.

Demographic Breakdowns

• Gender: Women supported Gore by 49%-40%, men favored Bush 46%-39%.
• Income: Affluent voters (>$75,000) preferred Bush over Gore 54%-33%.
• Age: Men under 50 leaned Bush, older men favored Gore slightly.
• Region: Gore led in the Midwest after Bush's gains.

Key Issues and Voter Perceptions

• Health Care and Economy: Gore was seen as better on handling health care, Social Security, and education. Bush had slight leads on taxes and abortion, but margins were small.
• Personality: Bush's slight edge in leadership and honesty, while Gore was viewed as more qualified and caring. However, his declines in likability and honesty were sharper among women and his supporters.
• Social Security: Voters favored maintaining guaranteed benefits over private accounts, with Democrats and independents strongly supporting the status quo.

Other Topics

• RU-486 Approval: Split among voters; men favored it, women opposed it.
• Missile Defense: Plurality (47%) supported development, with GOP voters backing it strongly.
• Voter Interest: More voters now closely followed campaign news (42%); debates had increased interest, with Gore winning the first debate.

Overall Race Prediction

Gore was predicted to win by 46% of voters, slightly less than Bush's 33%, with uncertainty among 21%. Democrats were more confident in Gore's victory, while Republicans leaned toward Bush.