国际能源署-与印尼公正能源转型伙伴关系一起推动印尼电力系统脱碳（英）-2023.12-30页_934kb

报告摘要

Summary of IEA Report on Indonesia's Power System Decarbonisation with the Just Energy Transition Partnership

Report Overview

This report examines Indonesia's power system decarbonisation through the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), established in 2022 during the G20 summit in Bali. It details the IEA's role in supporting the JETP Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP), outlining a pathway for reducing emissions with ambitious targets and addressing key challenges.

Background: Indonesia's Energy Landscape

Indonesia's power system is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, particularly coal, accounting for 61% of electricity generation in 2021 and contributing to high CO2 emissions (approximately 780 gCO2e/kWh). The country has a rapidly growing economy with increasing energy demand, projected to grow at 6.4% annually from 2022 to 2030. Renewable energy targets aim for 23% by 2025 and 31% by 2050, but decarbonisation requires phasing out coal and increasing clean energy share to achieve net zero emissions by 2060.

Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP)

The JETP was co-led by the United States and Japan, with international partners, to accelerate decarbonisation. It aims to mobilise $20 billion in investments by 2030, with $10 billion from public sources and $10 billion in private finance. Key objectives include raising renewable energy share to 34% by 2030, peaking power sector emissions at 290 Mt CO2 by 2030, and achieving net zero by 2050. The JETP Secretariat coordinates implementation, supported by multilateral development banks and private stakeholders.

Challenges and Opportunities

Decarbonisation faces technical challenges, such as integrating variable renewables and improving system flexibility. Regulatory and contractual barriers, including inflexible power purchase agreements and limited access to funding, pose risks. However, opportunities include reducing greenhouse gas emissions, enhancing energy security, creating employment, and fostering economic growth. Indonesia's abundant renewable resources, such as solar, wind, and geothermal, offer potential for cost-effective transitions.

Role of the IEA

The IEA provided technical expertise and coordination in developing the CIPP. This involved collaborative workshops with Indonesian stakeholders to refine decarbonisation pathways, address modelling challenges, and align on assumptions. The IEA supported policy reforms and infrastructure planning to facilitate renewable deployment and system operations.

Decarbonisation Pathway

The JETP pathway projects significant growth in renewable capacity, with solar PV leading at over 260 GW by 2050. Key measures include improving energy efficiency, enhancing demand-side response, and optimising system operations to reduce reserve margins from 30% to 10% by 2040. Addressing off-grid coal plant risks and leveraging technologies like storage and smart grids are crucial for achieving decarbonisation goals.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The report recommends reviewing existing coal power purchase agreements to inform a phased-out strategy, understanding financial implications for national utility PLN, improving operational practices for flexibility, and adopting probabilistic planning methods to manage uncertainties. Decarbonisation requires sustained political will, international collaboration, and innovative investments to ensure affordability, resilience, and equitable transition.