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Clean Energy Transitions: Road Transport in Emerging Economies

This IEA report analyzes road transport trends, energy demand, CO₂ emissions, and policy pathways in six major emerging economies (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa) to achieve decarbonization by 2050.

Key Findings:

• Energy Demand & Emissions: Road transport accounts for ~20% of global energy consumption and ~50% of oil demand. Selected countries' oil use peaks around 2030 before declining, while electricity increases. Emissions rise until mid-century in stated policies but peak earlier (2025-2030) under ambitious policies (APS). By 2050, emissions in APS fall to near zero, with significant savings (13 Gt CO₂ in cumulative reductions).

• Electrification & Fleet: Electric vehicles surge, especially in China and India. By 2050, at least 70% of cars in APS are electric, while trucks and buses undergo fleet electrification. Modal shifts to public transport are encouraged.

• Policy & Financing: Policy interventions include strengthening long-term strategies, phasing fossil fuel subsidies, promoting EV uptake (subsidies, mandates), improving fuel economy, and ensuring accessible financing. Investment needs grow from ~USD 60bn (2021) to ~USD 230bn annually (2050) in APS.

Recommended Policy Areas:

1. Holistic transport strategies and inter-jurisdictional coordination.
2. Remove distortions like fossil fuel subsidies and introduce carbon pricing.
3. Promote public transport and active mobility with electric buses/trains.
4. Accelerate EV electrification through demand- and supply-side policies.
5. Enhance vehicle efficiency via stringent, regularly updated fuel economy standards.
6. Innovate for zero-emission freight, blending biofuels sustainably, and enable infrastructure.

Country-Specific Recommendations:

• India: Develop a national transport strategy, enhance fuel economy standards, scale up EVs with improved financing, and integrate biofuels.
• Indonesia: Implement fuel economy standards, accelerate EV adoption with production incentives, phase out subsidies, and leverage public funds to attract private investment.

The report emphasizes that achieving net zero requires enhanced policy ambition and coordinated action in these economies.