2021-10-14-DNV-2020年航运报告（英）_68页_6mb

Executive Summary: DNV describes four scenarios (Full Steam Ahead, Knowing the Ropes, Sink or Swim, In the Doldrums) for the shipping industry up to 2020, driven by economic growth and regulatory or stakeholder pressure. Key technologies include sOx scrubbers, LNG fuelled engines, and energy efficiency measures like EEDI. Regulations such as the IMO global sulphur limit and EEDI will significantly impact technology investment and fleet composition in the coming decades.

Key Findings: By 2020, 20,000–40,000 ships could be equipped with scrubbers, and 5,000–7,000 newbuildings may use gas fuelled engines. CO2 reduction in newbuildings ranges from 10% to 35% compared to today’s ships. Energy efficiency improvements will be driven by both regulations and cost savings. Ballast water treatment and underwater noise/emissions are emerging regulatory challenges post-2020.

Technology Investment: Investment decisions are influenced by regulatory compliance, fuel prices, and cost-effectiveness. Technologies like scrubbers and LNG are sensitive to fuel price changes, while energy efficiency measures are bolstered by EEDI requirements. The uptake of new technologies is slow due to financial constraints, technical uncertainty, and split incentives between ship owners and charterers.

Fuel Trends: HFO will see a significant increase, particularly due to the global sulphur limit, ranging from 200–250 million tonnes annually post-2020. LNG and biofuels are expected to play a growing role, while renewable alternatives face distribution challenges. Fuel cost volatility dominates investment strategies.

Future Scenarios & Trends: Regulatory drivers like stricter environmental norms and advancements in technologies (electric propulsion, green fuels, digital systems) will shape the industry post-2020. Challenges include balancing environmental goals, technological maturity, and the economic feasibility of solutions. The Arctic sector sees growth due to increased shipping activity.