2025-03-24-未来能源研究所-实现马里兰州清洁能源目标的政策机遇（英）_50页_1mb

Clean Energy Policy Analysis for Maryland

Policy Comparison

• Insufficient Existing Policies: Increasing the stringency of the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) alone is insufficient to achieve Maryland's 100% clean energy goal by 2040.
• Key Elements: All policies require high Alternative Compliance Payments (ACP) to drive investment. Three frameworks are analyzed:
  1. 100% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS): Aims for 100% renewable energy by 2035, extending nuclear capacity.
  2. Clean Energy Standard (CES): Credits all non-emitting energy (nuclear, hydro, renewables), includes increasing ACP.
  3. Emissions Intensity Standard (EIS): Measures emissions per MWh of electricity consumed, covers both local and imported power.

Core Findings

• 100% RPS: Achieves the goal but faces challenges with fossil imports and high export rates (ACP needed for flexibility).
• CES: Promotes investment in clean energy but may rely on out-of-state credits, leading to emission leakage.
• EIS: Most cost-effective ($/ton) and flexible, enabling substitution within fossil fleets and reducing transmission constraints. Achieves deeper decarbonization with lower electricity prices.

Recommendations

• Phase 1: Start with EIS or CES for cost-effectiveness and emissions reduction.
• Deploy Forward Contracts: To hedge against clean energy price volatility and ensure generation resilience.
• Avoid Double Counting: Prevent unintended financial incentives by regulating REC transfers.
• Advocate for RGGI: Tighten regional caps to avoid the "waterbed effect" undermining state-level gains.
• Foster Innovation: Use ACP revenues for grid-scale storage or demand response.

Model Outcomes

• Emissions: All policies reduce Maryland's emissions, but EIS is lowest-cost. In-state fossil use is limited under EIS due to higher import intensity.
• Prices: EIS yields lower electricity prices than CES (average $0.53 vs. $1.94/MWh higher by 2035).
• Investments: EIS encourages fuel-switching (e.g., from gas to CCS), while CES relies on renewables. Storage investments needed to support clean deployment.

Agency Responsibilities

• Public Service Commission: Balances affordability, resource adequacy, and clean energy goals through joint compliance planning or procurement obligations.
• Strategic Role: Deploy these tools based on evolving market dynamics and avoid rigid "goal whiplash" by monitoring external factors like federal tax credits.

Open Questions

• Community Impact: Should policies favor local generation for resilience or global supply for efficiency? Mitigate cost-sharing with transmission constraints.