美国进步中心-评估中国的能源和气候目标（英文）-2021.5-30页_484kb

Summary of "Assessing China's Energy and Climate Goals"

Core Content

This report, published by the Center for American Progress in May 2021, evaluates China's recent and future climate and energy goals, focusing on the country's emissions trends, coal usage, industrial production, and renewable energy developments. It highlights the tension between China's long-term commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 and its relatively modest near-term targets, which raise concerns about the alignment of its policies with global climate stabilization efforts.

Main Points

China's Emissions Trends

• China is the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter.
• CO2 emissions increased by about 1.7% annually between 2015 and 2020, with a 1.5% rise in 2020 despite the economic impacts of the pandemic.
• Fossil fuel usage, particularly coal, continues to grow, undermining efforts to curb emissions.
• The 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) emphasizes incremental improvements in energy and carbon intensity, which may not be sufficient to limit emissions growth if GDP continues to rise at pre-pandemic rates.

Coal Trends

• Coal consumption reached a new high in 2020 at 2,829 million tons of coal equivalent, surpassing the 2014 peak.
• The government has eased restrictions on new coal plant construction, leading to a surge in coal capacity.
• Overcapacity in the coal sector is significant, with more than half of coal power firms operating below 50% of their capacity.
• Provinces have been allowed to build new coal plants under the guise of backup power, despite existing efficiency measures.
• Coal remains central to China's energy security strategy, with leaders emphasizing its role in safeguarding the economy.

Industrial Sector Trends

• The industrial sector accounts for 66% of China's total energy consumption and 50% of its emissions.
• Industrial emissions have been rising, particularly in steel and cement production.
• Post-pandemic economic stimulus includes increased funding for infrastructure, which is likely to continue industrial emissions growth.
• The government has not set clear limits on total energy consumption or GDP growth, reducing potential constraints on emissions.

Renewable Energy Trends

• In 2020, China installed 281.53 GW of wind power and 253.43 GW of solar power, surpassing previous targets.
• The share of wind and solar in total power generation rose to 9.5% in 2020, up from 8.6% in 2019.
• Curtailment rates for wind and solar have declined due to policy changes, including mandatory purchase and administrative penalties.
• Despite progress, renewables still account for less than 10% of total power generation, far below the levels needed for carbon neutrality.

Key Climate and Energy Goals

13th and 14th Five-Year Plans

• 13th FYP (2016–2020): China met or exceeded most goals, including a 15% increase in the nonfossil share of primary energy consumption and an 18% reduction in carbon intensity.
• 14th FYP (2021–2025): Targets are less ambitious, with a 13.5% reduction in energy intensity and an 18% reduction in carbon intensity, despite the previous 13th FYP target being surpassed.

2030 Climate Goals

• The original goal was a 60–65% reduction in carbon emissions from 2005 levels.
• The updated goal aims for at least a 65% reduction, but this still falls short of the level of ambition required to align with global climate targets.
• The 14th FYP also includes a target of 25% nonfossil energy share by 2030, though specifics for other sectors remain unclear.

Opportunities for U.S.-China Climate Engagement

• The report outlines three key areas for U.S. engagement with China on climate:
  1. Increasing near-term climate ambition.
  2. Ending financing for coal projects abroad.
  3. Accelerating the transition to carbon neutrality.
• The U.S.-China joint statement on climate, issued in April 2021, suggests that China may be open to raising its climate ambitions.
• The Biden administration is encouraged to work with China to align on climate goals, given the U.S. is strengthening its own climate policies and transitioning to a low-carbon economy.

Conclusion

• China's long-term commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 is commendable, but its near-term goals and actions are not ambitious enough to meet global climate targets.
• The continued reliance on coal and lack of clear emissions caps pose significant challenges to achieving carbon neutrality.
• There is a need for stronger international cooperation, particularly between the U.S. and China, to ensure both nations take meaningful steps toward decarbonization.