20151201-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_786kb
报告摘要
FX Insights Summary - 01 December 2015
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed analysis of various foreign exchange (FX) pairs, focusing on short-term and medium-term outlooks, key price levels, and upcoming economic data and central bank events. The analysis is conducted by UOB Group's Global Economics & Markets Research team, with key contacts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann. The report includes insights on the USD/SGD, EUR/SGD, GBP/SGD, AUD/SGD, JPY/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/THB, USD/CNH, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD pairs.
Key FX Pairs and Outlooks
USD/SGD: 1.4110
- Outlook: Bearish
- Target: 1.3905
- Stop-loss: 1.4160
- Support: 1.4070, 1.4020
- Resistance: 1.4160, 1.4200
- 24-Hour View: Sideway trading with a bias for a probe lower; expected range: 1.4070/1.4135
- Key Data: Singapore's bank lending fell in October, and the SGD NEER is expected to remain in a modest appreciation range
EUR/SGD: 1.4910
- Outlook: Bearish
- Target: 1.4805, 1.4990
- Stop-loss: 1.5020, 1.5050
- Support: 1.4865, 1.4805
- Resistance: 1.4985, 1.5020
- 24-Hour View: Expected to retest last week's low near 1.4865/70
- Key Data: ECB's decision is expected on Thursday, and manufacturing PMIs are a key focus
GBP/SGD: 2.1240
- Outlook: Bearish
- Target: 2.1065, 2.1205
- Stop-loss: 2.1350, 2.1400
- Support: 2.1200, 2.1065
- Resistance: 2.1310, 2.1350
- 24-Hour View: Mixed outlook; expected range: 2.1180/2.1310
- Key Data: UK's manufacturing PMI is expected to drop from October's 55.5
AUD/SGD: 1.0195
- Outlook: Neutral
- Support: 1.0140, 1.0080
- Resistance: 1.0230, 1.0255
- 24-Hour View: Sideway trading; expected to retest last week's peak near 1.0250/55
- Key Data: RBA's decision is expected, and no policy changes are anticipated
JPY/SGD: 1.1450
- Outlook: Neutral
- Support: 1.1395, 1.1430
- Resistance: 1.1480, 1.1530
- 24-Hour View: Expected to trade within a range; support at 1.1395
- Key Data: Japan's capital spending was strong in 3Q15, but company profits declined
USD/MYR: 4.2450
- Outlook: Bearish
- Target: 4.1500
- Stop-loss: 4.2980
- Support: 4.2200, 4.1900
- Resistance: 4.2815, 4.2980
- Key Data: BNM is working to reduce remittance costs through Greenback 2.0 initiatives
USD/THB: 35.89
- Outlook: Neutral
- Support: 35.73, 35.64
- Resistance: 35.92, 36.00
- 24-Hour View: Consolidation phase; expected to trade within a range
- Key Data: Thailand's current account surplus widened in October
USD/CNH: 6.4265
- Outlook: Neutral
- Support: 6.4120, 6.4040
- Resistance: 6.4340, 6.4480
- 24-Hour View: Expected to trade in a broad range; weak rebound from 6.4120
- Key Data: RMB was included in the SDR basket, with an entry weight of 10.9%
EUR/USD: 1.0575
- Outlook: Bearish
- Target: 1.0460
- Stop-loss: 1.0690
- Support: 1.0525, 1.0460
- Resistance: 1.0610, 1.0690
- 24-Hour View: Expected to test the year-to-date low near 1.0455/60
- Key Data: Germany's retail sales were disappointing, and Italy's inflation was weaker than expected
GBP/USD: 1.5055
- Outlook: Bearish
- Target: 1.4940, 1.5030
- Stop-loss: 1.5110, 1.5200
- Support: 1.5000, 1.4940
- Resistance: 1.5110, 1.5155
- 24-Hour View: Expected to retest the major support at 1.4940
- Key Data: UK's net consumer credit eased, and manufacturing PMI is expected to drop
AUD/USD: 0.7235
- Outlook: Bullish
- Target: 0.7295
- Stop-loss: 0.7170
- Support: 0.7170, 0.7100
- Resistance: 0.7295, 0.7360
- 24-Hour View: Strong rebound suggests a resumption of the bullish trend
- Key Data: RBA's decision is expected, and Australia's current account deficit narrowed
Key Economic Indicators and Central Bank Events
Upcoming Data Releases
- PMI Reports: China, Japan, South Korea, Eurozone, and US manufacturing PMI
- US Non-farm Payrolls: Expected on Friday
- Fed Chair Yellen's Congressional Appearance: Wednesday
- ECB Decision: Thursday
Central Bank Activity
- Fed Funds Rate: 0.0-0.25% (Last change: -0.75% in Dec 08; Next FOMC Meeting: 17-Dec-15)
- BNM (Malaysia): Expected to work on reducing remittance costs through Greenback 2.0
- RBA (Australia): No policy changes expected
- BOJ (Japan): Next meeting on 18-Dec-15
- ECB: Next meeting on 03-Dec-15
FX Forecast for 2016
| Currency Pair | 4Q15 | 1Q16 | 2Q16 | 3Q16 | FX Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.14 | Neutral |
| GBP/USD | 1.58 | 1.60 | 1.61 | 1.62 | Bearish |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.69 | Neutral |
| NZD/USD | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.60 | Bullish |
| USD/JPY | 124 | 126 | 127 | 128 | Neutral |
| USD/SGD | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.46 | 1.44 | Bearish |
| USD/MYR | 4.40 | 4.18 | 4.15 | 4.06 | Bearish |
| USD/THB | 35.5 | 35.8 | 36.0 | 36.0 | Neutral |
| USD/CNH | 6.40 | 6.45 | 6.51 | 6.47 | Neutral |
Key Interest Rate Forecasts
| Country | 4Q15 | 1Q16 | 2Q16 | 3Q16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UK | 0.50% | 0.75% | 0.75% | 0.75% |
| AU | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% |
| NZ | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% |
| SG | 1.15% | 1.20% | 1.25% | 1.35% |
| MY | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.25% |
| TH | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% |
| CN | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.35% |
| US | 0.50% | 0.75% | 1.00% | 1.25% |
Summary of Views
| FX Pair | Spot | Outlook | Target | Stop-loss | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/SGD | 1.4110 | Bearish | 1.3905 | 1.4160 | 1.4070, 1.4020 | 1.4160, 1.4200 |
| EUR/SGD | 1.4910 | Bearish | 1.4805 | 1.5020 | 1.4865, 1.4805 | 1.4985, 1.5020 |
| GBP/SGD | 2.1250 | Bearish | 2.1065 | 2.1350 | 2.1200, 2.1065 | 2.1310, 2.1350 |
| AUD/SGD | 1.0195 | Neutral | - | - | 1.0140, 1.0080 | 1.0230, 1.0255 |
| JPY/SGD | 1.1450 | Neutral | - | - | 1.1395, 1.1430 | 1.1480, 1.1530 |
| USD/MYR | 4.2450 | Bearish | 4.1500 | 4.2980 | 4.2200, 4.1900 | 4.2815, 4.2980 |
| USD/THB | 35.89 | Neutral | - | - | 35.73, 35.64 | 35.92, 36.00 |
| USD/CNH | 6.4265 | Neutral | - | - | 6.4120, 6.4040 | 6.4340, 6.4480 |
| EUR/USD | 1.0575 | Bearish | 1.0460 | 1.0690 | 1.0525, 1.0460 | 1.0610, 1.0690 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5055 | Bearish | 1.4940 | 1.5110 | 1.5000, 1.4940 | 1.5110, 1.5155 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7235 | Bullish | 0.7295 | 0.7170 | 0.7170, 0.7100 | 0.7295, 0.7360 |
Summary of Key Events
- IMF SDR Announcement: RMB was included in the SDR basket with an entry weight of 10.9%
- Central Bank Meetings:
- FOMC: 17-Dec-15
- ECB: 03-Dec-15
- BOJ: 18-Dec-15
- MAS: 21-Jan-16
- Economic Data Releases:
- US manufacturing PMI (final November)
- US ISM manufacturing and prices paid
- US non-farm payrolls
- China, Japan, South Korea, and Eurozone PMI reports
Conclusion
The report highlights a mixed outlook across FX pairs, with a bearish stance on USD/SGD, EUR/SGD, GBP/SGD, USD/MYR, and EUR/USD, while maintaining a bullish outlook on NZD/USD and a neutral stance on others. The key focus is on upcoming economic data and central bank decisions, which are expected to influence short-term and medium-term price movements. Support and resistance levels are provided for each pair, along with stop-loss and take-profit targets, to guide traders in their decisions.
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