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FX Insights Summary - 08 June 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of various foreign exchange (FX) pairs, highlighting their current price levels, outlooks, key support and resistance levels, and potential targets. It also includes a summary of the 24-hour and 1-3 weeks views for each pair, along with a broader FX and interest rate outlook for the second half of 2016.

Main FX Pairs Analysis

AUD/USD

Current Price: 0.7440
Outlook: Bullish (shift from neutral)
24-Hour View:
- AUD broke above 0.7400 resistance and surged to 0.7465.
- A strong daily closing indicates further strength.
- Overbought indicators may lead to consolidation.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Target a break above 0.7480 for a move to 0.7545.
- Support at 0.7365; a move below 0.7315 would indicate the bullish expectation is wrong.
- Key resistance levels: 0.7480 (R1), 0.7545 (R2).

USD/SGD

Current Price: 1.3520
Outlook: Bearish
24-Hour View:
- USD dipped further but held above 1.3510 support.
- Weak daily closing suggests further downward pressure.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Target a move below 1.3510.
- Next support at 1.3440; shorts should consider partial profit near this level.
- Resistance at 1.3590 (R1), 1.3630 (R2).

EUR/SGD

Current Price: 1.5355
Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View:
- EUR dipped below 1.5370 support but rebounded.
- Recovery may extend to 1.2660, but a sustained move above this level is unlikely.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral outlook within a broad range of 1.5300/1.5510.
- Resistance at 1.5430 (R1), 1.5500 (R2).

GBP/SGD

Current Price: 1.9650
Outlook: Shift from bearish to neutral
24-Hour View:
- GBP spiked to 1.9865/70 but reversed quickly.
- Expected to trade choppily within 1.9550/1.9750 range.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral within a broad range of 1.9400/1.9920.
- Support at 1.9550 (S1), 1.9400 (S2).

AUD/SGD

Current Price: 1.0065
Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View:
- AUD surged to 1.0095/00, indicating strength.
- Expected to consolidate between 1.0025 and 1.0095.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Bullish if daily closing above 1.0100/05.
- Resistance at 1.0105 (R1), 1.0185 (R2).

JPY/SGD

Current Price: 1.2625
Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View:
- JPY dipped below 1.2550 support but rebounded.
- Recovery may extend to 1.2660, but a sustained move above this level is unlikely.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral within a broad range of 1.2540/1.2770.

USD/MYR

Current Price: 4.0650
Outlook: Neutral
1-3 Weeks View:
- Pull-back may extend to 4.0400.
- Next support at 4.0070; a move back above 4.1050 would indicate eased downward pressure.

USD/THB

Current Price: 35.23
Outlook: Bearish
1-3 Weeks View:
- Target a move below 35.20 to 35.07.
- Shorts should consider partial profit at 35.07.
- Resistance at 35.33 (R1), 35.40 (R2).

USD/CNH

Current Price: 6.5730
Outlook: Neutral
1-3 Weeks View:
- Expected to trade choppily within a broad range of 6.5410/6.5960.

CNH/SGD

Current Price: 0.2058
Outlook: Bearish
1-3 Weeks View:
- Target a move below 0.2060 to 0.2050.
- Shorts should consider partial profit at 0.2050.
- Resistance at 0.2070 (R1), 0.2075 (R2).

EUR/USD

Current Price: 1.1355
Outlook: Bullish
24-Hour View:
- EUR attempted to move towards 1.1400 but failed.
- Consolidation is expected with a bias towards a probe lower to 1.1325.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Target a move to 1.1400 and then 1.1450.
- Stop-loss at 1.1250 (S1).

GBP/USD

Current Price: 1.4540
Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View:
- GBP showed a wild swing, resulting in mixed outlook.
- Expected to trade choppily within 1.4350/1.4730 range.

NZD/USD

Current Price: 0.6955
Outlook: Bullish
24-Hour View:
- NZD continued to rise despite overbought conditions.
- Expected to consolidate, but any pull-back is unlikely to fall below 0.6890.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Target a move to 0.7000.
- Stop-loss adjusted to 0.6860 (S1).

USD/JPY

Current Price: 107.10
Outlook: Bearish
24-Hour View:
- Consolidation is expected, with a range of 106.70/107.50.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Target a move to 106.00.
- Stop-loss at 108.10 (R1).

FX & Interest Rate Outlook for 2016

Currency Pair	2Q16	3Q16	4Q16	1Q17	Rates Outlook
EUR/USD	1.11	1.11	1.12	1.13	EU: 0.00%
GBP/USD	1.39	1.43	1.46	1.47	UK: 0.50%
AUD/USD	0.77	0.79	0.80	0.80	AU: 1.75%
NZD/USD	0.67	0.69	0.70	0.71	NZ: 2.00%
USD/JPY	110	111	112	115	JP: -0.10%
USD/SGD	1.34	1.35	1.36	1.39	SG: 1.30%
USD/MYR	4.05	4.08	4.10	4.10	MY: 3.25%
USD/THB	36.0	36.0	36.5	37.0	TH: 1.50%
USD/CNY	6.47	6.50	6.45	6.44	CN: 3.85%
USD/IDR	13,000	13,100	13,200	13,300	ID: 6.75%
USD/PHP	48.0	47.0	46.0	45.0	PH: 4.0%
USD/INR	69.0	70.0	71.1	72.2	IN: 6.75%
USD/TWD	32.1	32.3	31.9	31.6	TW: 1.38%
USD/HKD	7.80	7.80	7.80	7.80	HK: 1.00%
USD/US (Base)	-	-	-	-	US: 0.50%

Central Bank Meetings in 2016

Central Bank	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Federal Reserve (FOMC)	27	-	16	27	-	15	27	-	21	-	02	14
European Central Bank (ECB)	21	-	10	21	-	02	21	-	08	20	-	08
Bank of England (BOE)	14	04	17	14	12	16	14	04	15	13	03	15
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)	-	02	01	05	03	07	05	02	06	04	01	06
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)	28	-	10	28	-	09	-	11	22	-	10	-
Bank of Japan (BOJ)	29	-	15	28	-	16	29	-	-	-	-	-
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)	21	-	09	-	19	-	13	-	07	-	23	-
Bank of Thailand (BOT)	-	03	23	-	11	22	-	03	14	-	09	21
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)	-	-	-	14	-	-	-	-	TBA	-	-	-

Key Notes

The AUD/USD pair is highlighted as the Chart Of The Day, with a bullish outlook and a target of 0.7545.
A break above 0.7480 is expected to confirm the bullish trend.
USD/SGD and USD/THB are bearish, with potential targets below their current levels.
The GBP/SGD outlook shifted from bearish to neutral due to the recent spike and reversal.
EUR/USD is bullish, with a target of 1.1400 and then 1.1450.
NZD/USD is also bullish, with a target of 0.7000.
USD/JPY is bearish, with a target of 106.00.
The Central Bank Meetings table outlines upcoming events for major economies in 2016, which may influence FX movements.