2025-06-08-IEA-沼气和生物甲烷展望-全球地理空间评估（英）_132页_6mb

1. Introduction
   Biogases (including biogas and biomethane) are gaining momentum as they address energy security, emissions reduction, and local value creation. Projects using organic waste to produce sustainable, low-emissions fuels are prioritized by energy policymakers. Over 50 new policies supporting biogases have been introduced since the IEA’s 2020 report, including blending targets, incentives, and mandates.

Biomethane, an upgraded form of biogas, is a drop-in substitute for natural gas, used for heating, electricity, transport, and industry. In 2023, global biogas and biomethane production was about 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas equivalent (bcme), with Europe being the largest producer. Biomethane demand grew at roughly 20% annually, reaching almost 0.2% of global natural gas usage.

2. Supply Potential and Costs
   A global spatial analysis identified nearly 1 trillion cubic meters of gas equivalent (bcme) in sustainable feedstock potential annually. Most potential is concentrated in emerging and developing economies, led by Brazil, China, and India.

Biomethane production costs range widely, averaging ~USD 18/GJ. The cheapest production (USD <10/GJ) is in regions with dense, high-yielding feedstock and good infrastructure. Policy support and value-added co-benefits (e.g., digestate or carbon emissions reductions) can enhance competitiveness.

3. Key Issues

• Feedstock Availability: Policies for feedstock use vary by region, shifting from energy crops to residues and waste, especially in the European Union.
• Sustainability: Methane leaks (2–5% of output) can undermine environmental benefits. Best practices, such as leak detection and closed digestate storage, are crucial.
• Permitting: Permitting delays (2–7 years) are common but not insurmountable, with simpler processes possible in some regions.
• Cost Reductions: Larger plants (cap costs ~USD 5–9/GJ) can lower costs, while innovation pathways (e.g., biochar or hydrogen integration) may reduce expenses further.

4. Outlook
   Biogases are the fastest-growing bioenergy source in both the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Announced Pledges Scenario (APS).

• In STEPS, demand doubles by 2035, with biomethane being the primary growth driver.
• In APS, demand could triple by 2035 due to stronger policies and decarbonization goals.
  Emerging markets lead growth (e.g., India and China), while Europe benefits from energy security. Biogases avoid ~USD 8 billion in natural gas imports annually in the European Union alone.

This summary highlights biogases’ potential as a sustainable energy solution, subject to policy and sustainability challenges.